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https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2026/04...he-iran-war-a-global-supply-chain-shock/

An OECD report in mid-March made a brave attempt to forecast the war impact on the global economy with a downside scenario of oil prices averaging $135/b in 2Q2026 and, although falling thereafter, remaining higher than before the war into 2027. This suggested that global GDP growth could slow from 2.9% to 2.6% in 2026 and from 3.0% to 2.5% in 2027.

But these forecasts could be underestimates depending on how long the war will last, if it escalates, or how it will end.

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But it's okay because MAGA will convince themselves that THIS time Trump (and Netanyahu - who has said Iran was weeks away from a nuke for 20 years) was telling the truth.

https://didtrumpgolftoday.com/

Can't speak to the accuracy of that information ... but ... even if it's in the same ball park.

Priorities right?

In order for the Browns to win the North.they will need to have a QB possess
A QB rating of 90 or more.

Working on the ballroom.

How about we cede Maralumbago to Greenland? Throw Texas to Mexico, Florida to Cuba. We should charge him for naming rights.

President Trump To Don Jr. I've Known You a Long Time ... But I Might Be Too Busy For Your Wedding

President Trump won't commit to attending his own son's wedding.

Trump was asked Thursday about going to Donald Trump Jr. and Bettina Anderson's destination wedding in the Bahamas, and he told reporters he might be too busy to attend.

POTUS made it clear Don Jr. wants him there ... problem is, Trump says a Memorial Day Weekend wedding is not good timing for him ... what with the Iran War and all.

Trump says he's dealing with "other things" too that might keep him away from the wedding, which he described as a small, little private affair.

The Prez would only say he's going to try and make it ... but noted he would get killed by the "fake news" media no matter what he decides.

Bottom line for Trump ... Don Jr. is "a person I've known for a long time. Hopefully they're going to have a great marriage."

https://www.tmz.com/2026/05/21/donald-trump-will-attempt-to-attend-don-jrs-wedding/

But he's never too busy to golf!

Oil flows through Strait of Hormuz won’t return to normal until next year even if war ended tomorrow, warns energy boss

Full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to resume before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the current Middle East conflict were to end immediately, the chief of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm has warned.

Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of ADNOC, said it would take “at least four months to get back to 80% of ​pre-conflict ⁠flows” even if the conflict ended tomorrow, while full flows would not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027.

His stark assessment, delivered at an Atlantic Council event on Wednesday, represents one of the most pessimistic outlooks from top industry executives amid stalling efforts on both sides to secure a peace agreement.

The International Energy Agency has labelled the situation the "largest ever energy crisis" due to the near-closure of the strait, a vital chokepoint through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. Iran has established de facto control over the waterway, leading to a surge in energy prices, heightened inflation, and growing fears of a global economic downturn.

Mr Al Jaber’s concerns echo those of Amin Nasser, chief executive of neighbouring Saudi Arabia's oil giant Aramco, who previously cautioned that the oil market might not recover until 2027 if the situation persists through mid-June.

Reuters reported on Tuesday that Iran is solidifying its control over the strait through checkpoints, vetting procedures, and sometimes imposing fees. Tehran began attacking vessels in the strait to impose a de facto blockade after the ⁠US-Israeli assault against Iran began on 28 February.

Since then, Iran has broadened its definition of the waterway to encompass the UAE's Gulf of Oman coastline, just outside the strait. This area has become a crucial lifeline for the UAE, with a crude pipeline terminating at the port of Fujairah on that coastline, enabling some Emirati crude to reach international markets.

Mr Al Jaber emphasised the wider implications beyond economics. "This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished," he said.

Mr Al Jaber emphasised the wider implications beyond economics. "This is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world's most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished," he said.

"If we don't defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences."

The ADNOC chief highlighted the conflict's exposure of supply chain fragility, noting a 30 per cent rise in fuel prices, a 50 per cent increase in fertiliser costs, and airfares climbing by a quarter. He urged renewed investment to bolster global energy resilience.

He said: "Every farm, every factory, every family is paying the price, and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load."

Mr Al Jaber also pointed out that "just over 80 days into this conflict, almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/oil-flows-strait-hormuz-won-112955901.html

Jan. 6 rioter pardoned by Trump gets life sentence for child sex crimes

Andrew Paul Johnson promised one of his victims money he expected to receive from the Justice Department, authorities said.

A man pardoned by President Donald Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack was sentenced to life in prison for child molestation and related crimes.

Andrew Paul Johnson was arrested in August, nine months after Trump pardoned him and hundreds of other Jan. 6 defendants for crimes ranging from low-level misdemeanors to felony charges like assaulting officer with deadly weapons.

Johnson, 45, was convicted last month of five charges, including molesting a child under 12 and another under 16, as well as transmitting harmful materials by electronic device to a minor.

He has been sentenced to life, according to the Office of State Attorney Bill Gladson of the Fifth Judicial Circuit in Florida.

Johnson told one of the victims that he would see a windfall from the government after his pardon and that he would put the victim in his will to take any leftover money, according to law enforcement.

Trump has discussed the possibility of taxpayer-funded payouts for Jan. 6 defendants. The Justice Department already gave out just under $5 million to the family of Ashli Babbitt, who was shot as she jumped through a broken window leading into the House Speaker’s Gallery.

Another Jan. 6 defendant, Bryan Betancur, was arrested this week in connection with an assault and battery that occurred aboard a Metro train. Videos surfaced online that appeared to show him touching women's hair.

Over the weekend, another Jan. 6 defendant was arrested on suspicion of threatening one of the officers who protected the Capitol on Jan. 6.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/ju...ts-life-sentence-child-sex-cr-rcna261963

I wonder if they will put his CFR (Criminals For Trump) money on his commissary?

“These were peaceful people, these were great people.” - Trump

Hope it is better. We shoot 3s a lot. Best shot? Are we good enough to 2 for 20 and not change up the O? We seem to abandon what works, and die with it. I am stumped about who is getting minutes.

If you eliminate major costs you foresee while working, then things are simpler, so I agree. We have set up savings and investments every pay. We "practiced" budgeting before retirement while we only received one payday a month. We are comfortably set. More than that, we are happy with what we have; my wife is a blessing because we share priorities. The Shaker motto was good advice that smacks of Transcendentalism: "Simplify, simplify." Control what you can.

I don't disagree with a word you posted here.

To even compare this to "interest fee loans" is ludicrous. In this nation even in our justice system things are measured in degrees. These two events aren't even in the same ball park.

This is an outright and direct theft of taxpayer dollars. While an interest free loan doesn't add tax dollars it also doesn't steal tax dollars.

At that point it certainly becomes, at least to some degree a deflection. But as of late that's been the status quo.

All of those are fair points - especially regarding Richard Neal.

"The first part of the discussion is simple." - I think that says enough and I missed that this was your sentiment.

Personally, I find the characterization of immediate deflection to be misleading when I referred to the current situation as the "darkest" in the first sentence of my post. Is calling something the darkest normalizing?

It rubbed me the wrong way that a guy caught up in the "Rubbergate" scandal for effectively giving himself 88 (87?, sorry no coffee yet) interest free loans, Rep (D-MA) Richard Neal, complained about someone else turning the federal government into a personal racket, so I wrote one sentence on the hypocrisy and noted Republicans also are guilty (because I didn't want to appear that I was for that side). Plus, it feels like "our democracy" is more for politicians than us these days, so I was annoyed with a politician dropping the "our democracy" line.

It was a short, two sentence post (Because I'm already sick of PP and didn't want to take the time to leave a bunch of context for things to be taken out of, at the moment I was writing it) where I was disgusted with both Trump and the rest of DC.

The first part of the discussion is simple. So simple that I didn't feel the need to elaborate on it more than the half of the post I gave it.

One is screwed if they do or screwed if they don't in this forum. People seem to always be looking for something to be offended by rather than trying to understand what someone else is trying to say.

Having reached old age I can tell you.

You don't need as much as you once thought.

Your life becomes simpler. Your focus is narrower.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results! Applies to the financial markets and the Browns.

Good question and one I went through extensively recently!! The answer is complicated and had many variables.

I'm 57 (soon to add another digit to the total) - and retired last year. But ... I also moved to the UK 2+ years ago. There's this thing called National Health Service ... it makes the decision to retire so much easier to consider.

Other factors - as people have indicated: Housing costs. And not only housing costs - housing value. Is that a part of your 'net worth' ? Or are you only looking at the value of investments, 401K and what is in the bank? How much financial support do you need to provide for others - either parents as they age/slow down - or kids as they look to buy their first home, pay off college debts etc? And how lavish a life style do you want/need and how long for?

I've enough to comfortably get to 62 when I can start to draw soc sec. And if I don't touch soc sec - I have enough to get to 65-67 without touching my 401K. But with 2 kids still at home - my wife and I aren't traveling or letting rip. The wife is still working for that reason. And we both come from a upbringing of never buying anything on credit, paying off credit cards each month and living within your means.

Now - if we still lived in the USA and had to buy health insurance? We'd still be okay but I would not feel like it. No matter the math and logic, I'd be worried and I'd probably want to keep working till I was into my 60's "just in case".

Hypothetically at 55 in the USA - assuming the wife was also retiring - and figuring (guessing) $12-14K a year for health insurance. House paid off. Net worth excluding the value of the house. I think $2M would allow me to spend $100K+ a year without concern and still have a large nest egg when I hit 65-67.

I agree 88.

Wrong is wrong Red or Blue.

This is blatantly wrong. It hurts just to read that it happened.

I have an inherent distrust of politicians. Corruption and greed is their way of life.

trump has taken it to a level I would have never expected could happen.

Jan 6th is something I thought I would never see in the US. It still makes me sick.

When I was a boy my first glove was a Warren Spahn model.

Hank Aaron was one of my favorite players.

I moved to Atlanta in 1978 and became a huge fan. TBS, Ted Turner, and the Braves as a super station brought fans from all over the country. Braves baseball is a whole culture. My roots are the Indians and now Guardians.

I love baseball and follow both teams. But I watch the Braves play damn near every night.

The Braves don't have near the payroll of the Dodgers, and Mets. They are around 7th to 9th in team salary.

The organization is very well run. They are usually in the hunt.

This year and last year they have had a lot of injuries. I figured they would hang in there till the trade deadline and then put on a run.

No way did I expect them to have their record and lead all of baseball in batting average and ERA.

Drake Baldwin won the ROY last season. He has been unreal. Olson leading in RBI's. Guys who were depth players have been playing big roles.

The real surprise has been pitching. I did not see them doing what they are doing at all. Both starters and the bullpen.

At the same time I really love this young Guardians team. They are building a team that will compete well for years.

Yeah baseball.

I agree with the likely part. Probability always comes in to play. Sometimes it doesn't. That is my only point.

This shouldn't be difficult. What is happening is wrong - whether you want to call it corruption or put a different badge on it I don't care. And it should not matter whether both sides do it. It shouldn't matter if both sides do it a lot or a little in plain sight or behind closed doors. See something like this - and regardless of other issues that might be tangential to the issue, just call it out as wrong. Period.

I might think the 2 party system is broken and essentially ensures the status quo one way or the other (I do). I might think many or even most politicians on both sides of the aisle no longer put country foremost as their priority but instead look to self promotion, self wealth or party loyalty/fealty (I do). But it doesn't or shouldn't stop anyone saying this is wrong - and wrong on a pretty monumental scale that sets a precedent.

To immediately deflect the conversation away from the specifics and to focus on the generalization of both parties (all of which is subjective and based on opinion) seems to me to essentially normalize a wrongful action by shifting the focus from the factual wrongdoing to the frequency of a behavior that 'probably' happens often. Even if acknowledging it is all wrong: If they're all doing it why bother talking about this one (significant) example?

If I've oversimplified it - the intent isn't to misrepresent anything. Just that I think the first part of any discussion on this is simple.

Counterpoint:

The Browns are more like likely to finish with less than 6 wins than any other team in the NFL.
Since 1999, the Cleveland Browns have finished with 6 wins or less 19 our of 27 seasons and we have had losing seasons 23 out of 27 years.

Our record since 199 has been: 146-290-1

Meanwhile:
Patriots: 292-145-0 (they have less losses than we have wins)
Green Bay: 270-160-3
Steelers: 268-161-3
Ravens: 262-169-1

Your team has scored the second most runs in ALL of MLB…


My opinion: the Braves are the equivalent of somebody coming on here and talking about the Denver Broncos and gosh dang how tough they have it.


Also: With Blake Snell going under the knife — er, arthroscopic needle — the Dodgers now have 12 pitchers on the injured list.


I do want to point out Bone. (It’s taken years) but I am warming up to the Braves. Mainly because ATL is my next assignment.

I’ve went to 4 games this year. First game they beat the hell out of Guards. The next three was fun as hell rooting for them. I did get to see Mike Yastrzemski hit a walk off. On a personal note is cool as hell. When I was a little kid, my grandpa, and family dad took me to my first Tribe game against the Red Sox. I got to see Carl’s last HR before his retirement.


The Truist Park is one of my favorites. Easy to get to a game, parking is super easy and so is the whole game scene. Great environment. That offense is just fire. I went last week because they were giving out Hawaiian Braves shirts. I’ll go to another the first or second week of June.

I’m hooked. The last four years in Hawai’i, I forgot how much I missed going to the ballpark.However, I would trade it to be back at my home in Ala Moana/Waikiki. This is a good secondary reason to be happy.

The Braves have not yet played their starting lineup. Three starting pitchers who have just begun to throw will return by July. Right now two catchers who both DH and catch are out.

See what happens in July if they are really healthy.

j/c

I will be the first to say I don't watch much nba. At all. But the last 4 or 5 games of the Cav's, I have watched. What a, in my opinion, a farce. It's not basketball. Grump old man, I know.

Rebounding? I noticed that when the Cav's made an effort to do it, they won. Odd, isn't it?

Last night, up 22 with 7:30 to go, and hitting that dead zone..............it was. Well, my wife kept on yelling, and I simply said "Wife, it's Cleveland sports. We're going to lose. You should be used to it by now."

But, my over all point is: What has the nba become? Travels galore. Nasty ass pushing and no foul. Barely a touch and a foul. Sprinting up and down the court, no offense, just chuck a 3 pointer, etc.

I have no desire to watch again, but for this series.

The nba has done fine without me, and they'll be fine in the future, without me. It's not basketball, it's street ball.

Great perspectives

Sounds like you have a lot going on but still have everything put together.

The probably not was the closest representation of my expectations. Sometimes false/slim hope is the only hope you have to work with. Honestly, I think we've been pretty screwed for awhile. Too much power already concentrated in certain spheres.

To me, It has nothing to do with better. The whole system is filled with corruption. Corruption has been normalized already. I'm "hoping" the brazen outrageousness of Trump finally causes people to do something about all the corruption in spite of their already having been desensitized.

But, again, probably not. If this doesn't do it, it appears, to me, that there is nothing that will. So I "hope" it does prompt change.

At the same time, I don't want people to buy into the political theater that other politicians are against corruption itself and Trump is the only thing that needs to go to get rid of the corruption. It seems to me the quoted politicians are more against their own corruption being put at risk than corruption itself. We have decades of their actions to support that idea regardless of what the words they say are. Too many politicians treat "our democracy" as their route to riches and excess.