DawgTalkers.net Forums The Archives 2014 NFL Season NFL Draft 2014 My annual 32 GMs Mock Draft

Thanks BBD Though you probably like my mock better than I do as of now, lol. Still not 100% sold on Bortles at 4, but since the top 4 QBs were all gone by pick 12 and I got no trade offers, I at least feel a little better about the thought process that led to the pick.

Here's the update:

Round 1:

#1 Falcons (from Texans) - Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
#2 Rams (from Redskins) - Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
#3 Jaguars - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
#4 Browns - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
#5 Vikings (from Raiders) - Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
#6 Texans (from Falcons) - Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
#7 Buccaneers - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
#8 Raiders (from Vikings) - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
#9 Bills - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
#10 Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, OK State
#11 Titans - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
#12 Texans (from Giants) - Johnny Manziel, QB, A&M
#13 Rams - Hasean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
#14 Bears - Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
#15 Steelers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
#16 Cowboys - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
#17 Saints (from Ravens) - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
#18 Jets - Marqise Lee, WR, USC
#19 Dolphins - C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
#20 Cardinals - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
#21 Eagles (from Packers) - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
#22 Browns (from Eagles via Packers) - Zach Martin, OT, Notre Dame
#23 Chiefs - Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State

With the Chiefs going Cooks over Beckham, he's fully on my trade up radar along with CB Fuller. Like you and most on here, I love Skov, but at 35 he'd be a risky reach imho. He IS a medical risk with two knee procedures, so that has to weigh in on his value and selection risk. I look for something "safer" at 35, though I don't like MANY of the guys rated in the 30-75 range. My targets in that range are mostly on non-need positions: DE/OLB Lawrence, DE/OLB T.Murphy, RB Hyde, WR Matthews, WR Beckham, CB Fuller, OG G.Jackson, FS Brooks...that's really about it.

I promise to watch some P.Gaines, as I haven't done that yet. He was an unknown to me until he shot up charts after the combine.

What would you guys do? Trade up? If yes, for whom? How much? Stay put? Another target?

What would you guys do?

Hopefully you will be targeting a stud ILB w/your next pick. Or a WILL - not sure if we got with 4 LBs starting or 3??? hard to tell what importance the Staff has. I know we will be moving around in looks...but 4-3 base D we can go with another DL. 3-4 base D we can go with another ILB

jmhodraft opinion. Just remember to get a Stud no matter what...excluding of course Kicker n FB...lol

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With the Chiefs going Cooks over Beckham, he's fully on my trade up radar along with CB Fuller. Like you and most on here, I love Skov, but at 35 he'd be a risky reach imho. He IS a medical risk with two knee procedures, so that has to weigh in on his value and selection risk. I look for something "safer" at 35, though I don't like MANY of the guys rated in the 30-75 range. My targets in that range are mostly on non-need positions: DE/OLB Lawrence, DE/OLB T.Murphy, RB Hyde, WR Matthews, WR Beckham, CB Fuller, OG G.Jackson, FS Brooks...that's really about it.

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All I can say, if it was me, If Beckham Jr. is still there at 35, run to the podium and turn in that card as soon as is humanly possible...

Then I would hope that somehow Stanley Jean-Baptiste is still there at 71. If not, I would take Yawin Smallwood. At least one starting role on defense will be taken care of.

With this draft you are on track to complete this offense with your first three picks, don't stop one player short if Odell Beckham Jr. is still available.

I LOVE Bortles so yeah, I love the way the mock is going so far.

I see a very intriguing draft shaping up, at least for 35. ODB would be my top target there, kind of shocked to see him still on the board to be honest. If he's there at 35, I don't think you can pull the trigger fast enough.

I would shy away from RB early. I don't think the Browns will have a feature back and this draft is VERY deep at RB, and the rest of the NFL is basically shying away from the position. Hyde will be good, I think, but I wouldn't waste a premier pick on him.

The way it's unfolding here, I'd expect Fuller to go before 35. A lot of CB needy teams in front of you at 35, and I'm not sure he'd last that long. Same with ODB, I don't expect him to drop that much. I think Matthews may be the best available player there, but I'm not sure how you'd feel about a WR there.

I understand health concerns with Skov and why you'd shy away this early. I think he'd wreak havoc with Dansby in the middle, the perfect type of guy for Dansby to groom.

Lawerence is an interesting guy for me. I think he could be a solid yet unspectacular OLB or a really good DE with a little more meat. Not a guy I'd love at 35. Not enough boom.

I'd have no problems with Trent Murphy. I was a huge fan of that Stanford defense and would take anyone who has NFL potential on it. He's a great run stuffer and has some serious potential with his size. His passion and intensity would be an instant addition to this team.

I like Brooks. Not sure I like him that early in the 2nd round, though. Good player. Be a Whitner-type player with us, without the leadership and not as much freakish athletic ability.

Yeah, we pretty much see the same on those guys

Fuller and ODB are my top targets, but I also doubt they'll last, that's why I get trade up happy again, lol

Brooks, as much as I like him is a mid rounder to me, 3rd or 4th. Not spectacular, but a solid value and good system fit as he's a SS/FS tweener of sorts.

It's a tricky spot at 35. The one's I really like will probably be gone and the other's I'd consider reaches (Skov, Brooks, Hyde) or non urgent needs (Murphy, Lawrence, Jernigan?? he's still around too somehow). If I'm stuck at 35, it'll probably be Matthews. He may be the first WR that I'd say he "plays smaller", as in: when you watch him, he's cat quick for his size and it explains why he was so good when lined up in the slot. But when you compare him to M.Lee you see the difference. While more talented physically, Lee is simply a much better football player, with a better understanding for situations. Matthews is a real weapon on some routes (screen, slant and fades), but pretty much a project in most other aspects, but damn when this guy has two steps of room after a catch, he looks like Gordon flashing past the DBs with ease, it's really exciting to watch,

ODB is somewhere in between Lee-Matthews in terms of both upside and polish. He's also a good KR, which we happen to need too, so that'd be a bonus. The metrics on him also say that he ran a lot of "NFL" routes in the intermediate range. Depends on what we want out of WR2, but both would look good there and have the ability to move inside in any given situation. Matthews also has WR1 upside mid/long term in case Gordon "bombs". Both offer versatility.

Man, is there some way to get one of them + Fuller and Skov? I'd probably be willing to sell all my picks for them 3, lol

Thanks for your responses and keeping us updated. Mocks can be very interesting when knowledgable people are participating and taking it seriously. Keep the faith...

3 picks in an hour now. Bolts took CB Roby at 25, #26 Packers - WR ODB and at #27 Ravens took DT Jernigan

Trade up for CB Fuller or stay put? 7 more picks: Panthers, Pats, 9ers, Broncos, Seahawks, Giants and Skins. Who needs a CB most? Wow, the Panthers have nobody at CB, so I guess I have to ask them if I want Fuller, hmmm...

So Houston traded out of #1 to get #6 and #37, then they traded 33 and 37 for #12.

So essentially they traded their #1 and #33 for the #6 and #12...

either of you guys have an update?

Sorry, I'm away.

I traded up to 32 for CB Fuller. Trade was 32+132 for 35+106. picks before were Koundijo-SD, NE-Shazier, 9ers-Verrett, Broncos-XSF.

Giants GM said he would have picked Fuller at 33, so I feel a little

Next picks are 71, 121, 127, 132 etc

Targets are Matthews, Hyde and Skov.

very nice DJ, land Hyde and Skov and I would call it a win

Update:

Round 1:

#1 Falcons (from Texans) - Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
#2 Rams (from Redskins) - Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
#3 Jaguars - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
#4 Browns - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
#5 Vikings (from Raiders) - Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
#6 Texans (from Falcons) - Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
#7 Buccaneers - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
#8 Raiders (from Vikings) - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
#9 Bills - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
#10 Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, OK State
#11 Titans - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
#12 Texans (from Giants) - Johnny Manziel, QB, A&M
#13 Rams - Hasean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
#14 Bears - Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina
#15 Steelers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
#16 Cowboys - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
#17 Saints (from Ravens) - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State
#18 Jets - Marqise Lee, WR, USC
#19 Dolphins - C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama
#20 Cardinals - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
#21 Eagles (from Packers) - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
#22 Browns (from Eagles via Packers) - Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
#23 Chiefs - Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
#24 Bengals - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
#25 Chargers - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
#26 Packers (from Colts via Browns) - Odell Beckham, WR, LSU
#27 Ravens (from Saints) - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
#28 Panthers - Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama
#29 Patriots - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
#30 49ers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
#31 Broncos - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA
#32 Browns - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech

Round 2:

#33 Giants (from Texans) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
#34 Redskins - Jace Amaro, TE, TTU
#35 Seahawks (from Browns) - Joel Bitonio, OT/OG, Nevada

Next pick is 71 and I'm in wait and see mode now, but if Matthews somehow makes it past pick 50, I could get tempted again to move up, which is really uncharacteristic for me. If I can trade the 3rd and (now) 3 low 4th into Matthews and Skov somehow, I'd consider it a jackpot. For that to happen, Skov has to make it into the 4th though....we will see. If Matthews is gone, I'll probably secure Skov at 71 and go BPA the rest of the way.
In retrospect, the trade up for Martin was probably not necessary, but I think he won't make it to 26 in the real draft. One thing's for sure. If we want the possibility for a day one ready upgrade at CB, we'd have to move up from 26 or take Fuller there, but then would have to take Yankey or G.Jackson at 35 if we want a starting caliber OG and there's a real drop off in talent from Z.Martin to those two, which includes questions about system fit and lack of versatility with those two.
That said, I think we have to deal a little to max our value with those two selections. Not sure Martin+Fuller is the best value. Maybe sacrificing more and taking Dennard or M.Lee would have been better. Still not sure if I missed out there by being cheap and prospect happy, time will tell. I really blame Farmer for going into this draft with so many glaring needs that I have a hard time burning a 3rd or 4th to go get falling value. It's really a balancing act to fill needs, get good value without reaching and still keep enough valuable picks to fill out the other needs and depth issues. This is a recipe for reaching come draft day and I fully expect them to both reach AND miss out on a need almost by default, especially if they don't go QB at 4.

Still waiting for the OC/OG...first pick in the 4th? I realize we can't get everybody we wish...

Yeah, I like Steen too much not to consider him in the 4th, but my 1st pick there is at 121 now. Not sure he lasts that long, doubt it actually. If both Matthews and Skov are gone before #71, I will most certainly try to trade down in order to regain better slots in the 4th or trade up material. With so many picks, Farmer really can work the draft however he wants it to. I hope he's as active as me. Regardless of the players he picks, that would at least mean that he has conviction in what he does

I haven't looked at analysts mock drafts at all the past weeks in order to not distract my opinion on the 1st round prospects and their value, but looking over them now it looks like I got a consensus projected top 5 prospect at 4 with Bortles, a consensus top 20 guy at 22 with Martin and a consensus 1st rounder and still rising Fuller at 32. Prisco even had him as the 1st CB taken at 8, wow.

While I managed not to lose any pick in quantity while trading up small twice, it did cost me of course in mid round positioning. #83 and #106 are now #121 and #132 and that'll mean a drop off in 2nd tier talent, but otoh I believe I got an upgrade in 1st tier talent and my thinking is that because this class is so deep that I still can fetch some good value there. It was worth it, I think...

He drafted Martin as a guard.

If a center is worth a top 2 round pick, then paying mack the money he is getting is worth it.

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If both Matthews and Skov are gone before #71, I will most certainly try to trade down in order to regain better slots in the 4th or trade up material.

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good plan

Update:
Round 2:

#33 Giants (from Texans) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
#34 Redskins - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
#35 Seahawks (from Browns) - Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada
#36 Raiders - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
#37 Giants (from Falcons via Texans) - David Yankey, OG, Stanford

Raiders beefed up their LOS with Robinson and Hageman. Great value and picking up an extra high 3rd on top of it. Well done

Update:

Round 2:

#33 Giants (from Texans) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
#34 Redskins - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
#35 Seahawks (from Browns) - Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada
#36 Raiders - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
#37 Giants (from Falcons via Texans) - David Yankey, OG, Stanford
#38 Buccaneers - Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
#39 Jaguars - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, FSU
#40 Vikings - Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
#41 Bills - Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State
#42 Titans - Stephon Tuitt, DT/DE, Notre Dame
#43 Giants - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State

Benjamin and Robinson before Matthews?!

That's...interesting.

Yeah, don't understand it at all.

Update:

Round 2:

#33 Giants (from Texans) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
#34 Redskins - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
#35 Seahawks (from Browns) - Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada
#36 Raiders - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
#37 Giants (from Falcons via Texans) - David Yankey, OG, Stanford
#38 Buccaneers - Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
#39 Jaguars - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, FSU
#40 Vikings - Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
#41 Bills - Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State
#42 Titans - Stephon Tuitt, DT, Notre Dame
#43 Giants - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
#44 Packers (from Rams) - Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
#45 Lions - Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
#46 Steelers - Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
#47 Cowboys - Kareem Martin, DE, UNC
#48 Ravens - JaWuan James, OT, Tennessee
#49 Jets - Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame

I'd take Fuller at 26, and don't think he'd last there. So the trade up was much approved.

If you can land a starting ILB then I'd call this draft a win. Maybe even pick up a RB and a S.

Even though I don't want Bortles

Hoping Christian Jones from FSU is there for our first 3rd round pick...maybe a Safety or WR after that...I prolly would wait till round 4 for a RB...

Update:

Round 2:

#33 Giants (from Texans) - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
#34 Redskins - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
#35 Seahawks (from Browns) - Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada
#36 Raiders - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
#37 Giants (from Falcons via Texans) - David Yankey, OG, Stanford
#38 Buccaneers - Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
#39 Jaguars - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, FSU
#40 Vikings - Dee Ford, DE/OLB, Auburn
#41 Bills - Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State
#42 Titans - Stephon Tuitt, DT, Notre Dame
#43 Giants - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
#44 Packers (from Rams) - Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois
#45 Lions - Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
#46 Steelers - Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
#47 Cowboys - Kareem Martin, DE, UNC
#48 Ravens - JaWuan James, OT, Tennessee
#49 Jets - Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame
#50 Dolphins - Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
#51 Ravens (from Bears) - Deone Buccanon, S, Washington State
#52 Cardinals - Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State
#53 Rams (from Packers) - Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida
#54 Eagles - Donte Moncrief, WR, Mississippi

Can't believe a complete project like Moncrief gets picked before Matthews. Way overdrafted, just like Roberson. D.Adams is also still around. Really, really like D.Lawrence and think he was a steal at 52.

WR Matthews, ILB Skov and FS T.Brooks remain my targets for pick 71, probably in that order. If Matthews keeps falling, I might have to trade up for him

Kind of hard to compare Jones' stats with Skov... Jones lined up mostly as a LE out of need this year rather than as a LB.

Yeah, Jones lined up all over the place and didn't look like a player that liked to take on blocks, which imho is what it's all about as a MLB, especially in a more unprotected 3-4 alignment.

That said, the obvious athleticism is really intriguing, but to me he has no defined position yet. He's VERY raw and a project. What the Browns need is a guy that can come in day one and be able to look ok next to Dansby. Jones is not that guy imho.

In many ways he's to LB what Moncrief is for WR in this class. A raw project with tons of upside who needs 1-2 seasons just to develop before you can even think about playing him. He does have some Timmons to his game and that's his upside, but he has some bust potential too if he can't develop the rest of his game. Not sure we can afford a top 100 pick on that kind of prospect.

Skov otoh, has a much more well developed game. He has the mental part of it down, both physicality and positioning. That means he will be useful real quick. The upside with him is that as he's more removed from his knee operation, the athleticism will get back. The downside is the medical history. Whats the value on a player like that? How much do you downgrade a player that has top50 written all over him when you watch him play? To me, you bump him down slightly, but you still gamble on his knees as your 3rd/4th pick in a draft class, beginning from late 2nd to 3rd.

I'm still trying to find a way to get both Matthews and Skov, but for that to happen Matthews has to drop past pick 60 and Skov past pick 80 and the next problem would be that I'd take Matthews before Skov, which would be gambling with a high priority need, although I like my fall back options in Kirksey and Bullough. Not sure there's an outside WR with the same upside as Matthews...hmm, thoughts?

Bengals at 55 took C Martin from USC btw

Don't trade up for Matthews IMO. We really don't have an urgent need for a WR. If one falls to your pick you relaly like then sure, but why burn multiple picks on a guy who will start as 4th on the depth chart.

I wouldn't trade up at all in this draft, unless a guy like Mack drops to 24 or something, and we can trade up relatively cheaply.

I see no reason why we can't come out of this draft with 2-3 starters, and several players who may start out as key reserves. Of those key reserves, we might have yet another future starter or 2. I certainly don't want to trade out of the top 3 rounds of this draft. There is a lot of gold to be mined there.

I wouldn't mind trading down a time or 2, especially at 26 and/or 35, if it appears that we'll be able to still get players we want ....... but I don't want to miss out on a shot at what the front office sees as a franchise QB, If they feel that there is a franchise QB in this draft, then I am fine with them taking him at 4. No sense messing around if there is a guy you feel has that potential.

Do you really believe in Burleson as a WR2? Right now, our WR depth chart looks filled and ok with Gordon, Burleson, Hawkins, Benji and Little from WR1 to 5

I'd agree that it looks good on paper, but everyone of them has serious qustion marks: Gordon is one strike away and the depth is horrible to be pushed up even one slot. Hawkins is a slot WR only, Benji a WR4/RET only, they can't play any other roles even at stop gap level imho and both have injury concerns due to their body shape. Burleson is a one year stop gap. Little is on the roster bubble.

Here's where I see Matthews value kicking in: as a rook, he won't solve the problem IF Gordon missed time as he has some project to him too as far as route running, but he can split WR2 duties from day one with Burleson AND slot duties with Hawkins, as he's unique on WR screens and slants. We'd have a rotation of Burleson, Matthews and Hawkins at WR2 and sWR, keeping everyone fresh. Who would play slot WR if Hakwins misses time? We have no other sWR. We never tried Little there. Matthews has the quicks to play there despite being a big body WR.
In short, while our WR depth chart looks solid on paper, it's missing a versatile part to be ready come gameday and for sure over the length of a season where you have to calculate a top 3 WR missing time.

What other WR do you see able to fill that role? Maybe Norwood without the long term upside, but the rest of the WR class left looks a lot like sWR only or outside WR guys who need time to develop. No?

So you're talking about trading up in the 2nd or 3rd round for a guy who can come in in case our slot WR is hurt?

Who can play slot or outside that will be available later? Jeremy Gallon can. Devin Street can. Michael Campanaro can. Robert Herron, Josh Huff.

FWIW, my trade ups have been really cheap as I could take advantage of some teams desperately trying to trade down. I didn't lose a pick.

That said, I think our spots at 26 and 35 aren't as good as they seem to be, especially the 26th. You either trade up or down there imho considering our needs. As an example: the downgrade from Martin to XSF is well worth burning a mid round pick imho. The tape isn't even close and both are projected to LG from LT and Martin is a much better scheme fit and has more versatility upside.
Same at CB. Fuller is a top 3 CB in this draft and there IS a drop off from him to Verrett. At worst, Fuller becomes a very capable FS, but he has CB2 written all over him. Verrett is more like a Skrine/Munnerlyn, an elite slot CB with "maybe" CB2 upside. Roby is the boom/bust gamble. He could be better than Fuller 3 years from now, but his floor is much lower too.

As deep as this draft is, the depth really only starts to kick in in the 3rd/4th round range imho. At the top and in the 2nd this draft is very similar to any other draft, so if you want to maximize value you have to be proactive. The Browns have the ammo to move and the needs as a motivation to move. I fully expect them to go get their guys...now, if they're the right guys is another discussion, but considering our needs and pick ammo, it'd be a red flag for me, if they're playing it passive like last year's draft.