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I used to start a thread every week about this, but it got tiresome. Anyway, I know there's a few of you out there. How's the year going for ya? What do ya like this weekend? What about in Bowl season if you've gotten that far? I, for one, am having the worst year I've ever had. I'm still up a little bit of money, but certainly not where I usually am in mid-December. Hope you guys are having a better year than me 
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Legend
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I had my worst year ever. Just couldn't catch any breaks. I think I may be done until NFL playoffs. I don't even feel like I have a good grip on these bowls, and bowl season has always been my personal ATM.
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Vegas sports books are also having their worst year ever.
This is not a coincidence. All this means is that the guys you see who know nothing about betting sports, walking up to the counter, throwing a $100 on a game, while still wearing their clothes from the night before are hitting this year, and it's the ones who do it regularly and at a high level (which is a VERY small percentage) are the ones that are missing.
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I'm surprisingly 5-1 in college basketball this year. My only loss was Kentucky and Baylor.  Thought after the beatdown we took from Notre Dame, and the line being Kentucky -7, it was a trap line to get you to take Baylor. Well, it was a trap bet, because most of the bets were on Baylor, but Vegas got that one wrong, and so did I.
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Quote:
All this means is that the guys you see who know nothing about betting sports, walking up to the counter, throwing a $100 on a game, while still wearing their clothes from the night before are hitting this year,
I'm up 50k...no way I'm changing my cloths 
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it's the ones who do it regularly and at a high level (which is a VERY small percentage) are the ones that are missing.
Get a little cocky...start losing it inside..that's when luck bolts out taking intuition with it.. you question your gut... confidence bleeds out you like the sweat on your palms after placing a stack on the table that may break your balls hard....
You know you can get your balls back...You just have to learn to turn your back.
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My problem in the past was always raking in from ncaa and nfl, then not being able to control myself with the NBA and NHL.
Betting on those 2 sports should be considered downright insane. So tempting, but too many teams have off nights. There are no off nights in the NFL. Teams spend all week preparing. I think our odds are better.
Baseball isn't quite like that, and I know of systems people use that are profitable, but it is still a sport that if you don't know what you're doing, or don't stick to your guns, you'll be in the hole quick.
When I first started betting, the site I used offered a free weekly contest with a pot that gets bigger if nobody can win the week. When I took part, the pot was at $1700, and I ended up winning by some ridiculous pure luck events that happened.
I turned that into about $5600 and blew it all in the course of about 6 months. The worst part is that the money had rolled over in my account enough to where I could have made a withdraw (prize money for contests like that must be bet over a certain amount of times before you can get the money)
During that time I had bet a grand on a football game and won. It was quite the run.
Moral of the story, don't bet NBA and NHL.
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I recently read an interesting article by a successful gambler (I can't remember the name or where I read it), that said he made his fortune in college basketball. Supposedly, there are just so many games on any given night that the books can't keep up with the significant variables that can affect the outcomes.
And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir
#GMSTRONG
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I made a stupid bet that the Celtics would beat the Lakers in LA to clinch the finals in 2008. Haven't gambled since then  Does any place like Yahoo have fake sports gambling?
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Quote:
I made a stupid bet that the Celtics would beat the Lakers in LA to clinch the finals in 2008. Haven't gambled since then
Does any place like Yahoo have fake sports gambling?
Not sure but there used to be a site where you could bet pennies that you earned through clicking adds. I think it was called CentSports.
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Quote:
Quote:
I made a stupid bet that the Celtics would beat the Lakers in LA to clinch the finals in 2008. Haven't gambled since then
Does any place like Yahoo have fake sports gambling?
Not sure but there used to be a site where you could bet pennies that you earned through clicking adds. I think it was called CentSports.
It got bought out or merged with a different site. Start with a free 50 cents - and go from there. If you build up enough with wins, you can cash out. Costs you nothing.
I use it - no spam mail, no problems at all that I've had.
Lose your 50 cents? Watch a 15 or 30 second ad, get it back. Some people have over $600 in their account.
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Quote:
I made a stupid bet that the Celtics would beat the Lakers in LA to clinch the finals in 2008. Haven't gambled since then
Does any place like Yahoo have fake sports gambling?
I have a program on my iphone that i do fake betting... I think my wife would shoot me if I gambled for real...
<><
#gmstrong
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Interesting line next week.
Browns are 7 point favorites over Washington.
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The Browns are 4-1 in their last 5 games at home.
Kinda weird that they would have a larger spread against a better opponent though. They were favored by 6.5 against the Chefs. Griffin might be out, but might not.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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The line was up to 7 by kick-off against the Chiefs.
But, yeah, surprising, RGIII or no RGIII, we're a TD favorite over a playoff contender....
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I don't know that it's surprising at all. The 'Skins go because of RG3. He has the #1 QB rating in the league right now. That happens because of his wheels. His abilities created the offense they currently run.
But here's the problem: Kirk Cousin's is no RG3, hehe.
They have to scrap their entire read-option offense if he's in the game and go back to a basic attack, something they haven't spent a ton of time practicing.
Furthermore, the 'Skins have given up the 5th most yards in the league. Unfortunately for us, they are 7th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at under 100. We can't run on bad run-defense teams. I'm worried about how little space we'll create against a team like that.
To me, if Cousin's in the game, I'd still take the Browns at -7. If a healthy Griffin is in the game, well, the line is a little different...
***Gordon, I really didn't think you could be this stOOpid, but you exceeded my expectations. Wussy.
Manziel, see Josh Gordon. Dumbass.***
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Where did you see that line (Browns -7)?
Normally line spreads on Monday for games where a QB is in question are taken off the board until the books can get more info.
If RG3 is playing I don't see how the Browns can be favorites. If I were making the book, I would have Redskins -2.5.
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So is RG3 out for the game then? It still doesn't make sense to me.
I was going to say the Browns/Skins game would be great NBC SNF flex, but the Pats and 49ers are playing and those are both media darling teams.
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Quote:
So is RG3 out for the game then? It still doesn't make sense to me.
I was going to say the Browns/Skins game would be great NBC SNF flex, but the Pats and 49ers are playing and those are both media darling teams.
even w/ a different SNF game, I would think that the rest of the country isn't caught onto the Browns yet. the talking heads certainly are getting there, but it'll take awhile for casual fans to see "Browns" on a TV schedule and actually make an effort to flip that channel to it.
#gmstrong
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Quote:
Quote:
So is RG3 out for the game then? It still doesn't make sense to me.
I was going to say the Browns/Skins game would be great NBC SNF flex, but the Pats and 49ers are playing and those are both media darling teams.
even w/ a different SNF game, I would think that the rest of the country isn't caught onto the Browns yet. the talking heads certainly are getting there, but it'll take awhile for casual fans to see "Browns" on a TV schedule and actually make an effort to flip that channel to it.
I dunno about that. I have already had about 10 Bears fans come up to me today talking about our game and just the fact that we've been good over the last 2 months. I think people are catching on.
I follow NFL Memes on facebook, and someone put up a meme about the Browns, making fun of them, and the comments section was filled with non Browns fans defending them, and complimenting their play.
Honestly from the league's perspective, almost every game of theirs has been tight and exciting down to the last few minutes.
I do think this team playing better combined with JH3 has earned us maybe a MNF game next year and maybe one or two other games.
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I agree with that to an extent. Dallas fans were respectful of our game vs. them (a few were even fearful as they saw our teams going opposite directions at the time).
But, there's a difference between "Hey, the Browns are actually becoming a decent team" and "The Browns are on tonight, I better tune in to see what they are all about"
#gmstrong
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Still no lines for the game yet from what I see, although covers.com which keeps track of all kinds of lines from different casinos and online sites, has their own odds for the game at WAS -2.5, I don't know if they are assuming RG3 is going to be out there.
I think he plays. Just my gut feeling, haha
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The line is off the board now. It up was earlier in the week with Cleveland -7.
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i assume it is "off the board" until the RGIII decision is known (and more known about how limited he will be).
i think he plays, but his running is limited. we'll see.
#gmstrong
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Shanahan just said on NFL radio that RGIII will be a game time decision.
And into the forest I go, to lose my mind and find my soul.
- John Muir
#GMSTRONG
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As of yesterday the game was still off, i'll check latter today.
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I actually just looked, it's still off. Might not be back on the board til Sunday morning.
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I ended up with a pretty good day yesterday. Had Pitt -1. Hate losing money, but at least it's on the Steelers  Hit on... Houston -10 Atlanta -1 Arizona +6 Arizona/Detroit Over 43.5 KC/Oakland Under 44 Then I doubled down everything I was up on San Fran +4 because it was my favorite bet of the week. Plus I'm 2-0 in bowl games. I'll take 8-1 in my last 9 
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Browns gettin 12 Sunday. That line is inflated.
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Quote:
Browns gettin 12 Sunday. That line is inflated.
Unless the Broncos are resting Manning, which they won't because they are still playing for the bye, I'd take the Broncos.
yebat' Putin
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Peyton Manning has never lost to the Browns.
However, the Browns have always given him fits and played him close.
Scores of Peyton Mannings 5 games vs. the Browns
2008 : 10-6
2005 : 13-6
2003 : 9-6
2002 : 28-23
1999 : 29-28
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those Colt teams never had a defense like the one the Broncos have this season.
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Quote:
those Colt teams never had a defense like the one the Broncos have this season.
Either way, we hold Peyton Manning to 17.8 points per game, in 5 games.
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I'm not saying it's the lock of the year, and I'm definitely not saying we'll win, but the Browns for the most part, all year, have hung in there through their schedule. 12 points is a pretty solid bet.
There is also always the backdoor cover, which is huge in the NFL because most of these teams keep going hard, and coaches will always pull back with that kind of a lead under a few minutes. They could be ok going from a 14 point lead to a 7 point lead as long as they make the opponent use up most of that time.
I also think the Browns come into this game focused, after getting their pants pulled down on Sunday. The Broncos are also coming off a huge road win.
It's a solid bet, but in the NFL there is no such thing as a lock.
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I'm notorious for picking games early then when I make my official picks Sunday morning, completely changing everything LOL.
But early games I like next week....
Pittsburgh -4.5 against Cincinnati
Chicago -5.5 against Arizona
Oakland +8.5 against Carolina
I typically like underdogs more ... Really odd that I'm liking 2 out of 3 favorites.
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Thought I had read somewhere that about 75% of teams favored by 11 or more dont cover the spread. Just food for thought.
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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I only left one of the games I said on my picks today. And they'll change again by Sunday  Right now I'm liking ... Detroit +3.5 Pittsburgh -3.5 Dallas -3 Seattle +1 New York Jets -2.5 Philadelphia +6
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I'm not 4-1 in bowls.
Damn you, Ball State.
I got Boise State -4 in this game right now.
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