Good Write up on Weeden Dave Hyde is a award winning Columnist that covers the Dolphins. It is a long write up but some good points that contrast Weeden with the rest of the prospects.
Draft Winds. The Garden of Weeden.
Hello. Apologies for our absence over the past 10 days or so, but we’ve been planning our QB spectacular, a three parter to take us up to our final, pre-Draft preview. Over the next three weeks we’ll be going in-depth on the three most likely QB’s that we believe the Dolphins will be looking to draft come the end of the month. These are as in depth as they were last year when we looked specifically at Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton, Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert. They’re not for the faint hearted and there’s a lot of information contained below but I promise you that by the end, you will know everything you need to know about whether Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden should be the next QB of the Miami Dolphins.
We have an exclusive interview with the former Cowboy where we find out the TRUTH about ‘that’ shoulder injury and stay with us because at the end, we’ll give you the lowdown on exactly who Miami have been meeting and working out. If you’re new to Draft Winds then ‘Miami Meets’ is a must read; if a name isn’t on our list then, then given the history of the past 3 years, Miami’s not drafting them.
Anyway, it’s time for you to take a walk with Chris through The Garden of Weeden:
Oklahoma State offensive coordinator Todd Monken is a well-travelled man who has seen his share of quarterbacks. His history with college quarterbacks reads like a cross-section of the depth and breadth of the NFL projection experience, from the nationally-famous, yet ill-fated physical dynamos of Rick Mirer (Notre Dame, 1991-92) and Jamarcus Russell (LSU, 2005-06), to local heroes turned journeymen backups like Charlie Batch (Eastern Michigan, 1994-97) and Luke McCown (Louisiana Tech, 2000-01).
The question becomes this: Will Tannehill last until the Dolphins' 8th overall pick?
Matt Flynn, who looked to be the top quarterback free agent in this year’s market until Peyton Manning spoiled the party, won a National Championship for his Passing Coordinator Todd Monken back in 2007. Monken even coached current Miami Dolphin quarterback David Garrard into a Pro Bowl appearance with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2009.
Coach “Monk,” as he’s called, has seen everything at the position. Or at least he had, until he coached Brandon Weeden at Oklahoma State in 2011. In a history littered with Pro Bowlers, National Champions, future #1 overall picks, future backups, future washouts, physical phenoms, NFL franchise record holders, “winners,” and hot shot free agents, one wonders where Weeden fits in.
The best he’s ever coached, at any level.
That’s what Monken told Oklahoma State football publicist Gavin Lang in a conversation back in November of 2011. “It’s unbelievable. You’re almost shocked when Brandon Weeden doesn’t throw a perfect ball.”
Given the unique manner in which the two began their journey together, the sentiment is not surprising. Weeden is not your run-of-the-mill college quarterback. At the time Monken was hired by Oklahoma State from the Jacksonville Jaguars, Brandon was 27 years old, a former top baseball pick by the New York Yankees, an Oklahoma State school record-holding quarterback, and the holder of a 2nd to 3rd round Draft grade from the NFL’s Advisory Committee. Oh, and Weeden had recently tossed in the honour of being a walk-on at Oklahoma State’s preseason ranked #2 golf program, just- well, just because he could.
You have to some confidence to look Oklahoma State Head Coach Mike Gundy in the eye and tell him you want to have input in the hiring of the next Oklahoma State offensive coordinator. He’s the coach. You’re just a player. Yet, that is exactly what Brandon Weeden did after offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen left to coach at West Virginia.
I use the word ‘confidence,’ where others might use something akin to ‘arrogance,’ in describing a request that would almost surely draw a repeat of the famous “I’m a man! I’m 40!” rant. Arrogance would draw the sermon, the hell and the fury. Instead, confidence drew careful consideration and a surprising acquiescence from the Head Coach, who kept Weeden briefed on the search and arranged a phone conversation between he and Monken that played a significant part in the decision to make the hire.
All of this merely serves to illustrate the importance of getting the right grade on a Brandon Weeden. He is not your typical college quarterback prospect. He has the potential to be much more, much quicker, than a team has any right to expect when selecting a player from that position in the NFL Draft.
Through the (Many) Years
Brandon attended Edmond Santa Fe High School in Edmond, Oklahoma. He played baseball, basketball and football. He did not focus on football until his junior and senior seasons. In his junior season, he struggled to a 2-8 record. But by the second half of the final game of his senior season, he exploded with 30 points and delivered Edmond Santa Fe High School the first ever playoff appearance in school history. He would go on to tear apart two prominent state football programs with 628 passing yards and 6 touchdowns in the first two rounds of the playoffs, before losing in the state semi-finals. In November 2001, the Oklahoman described Weeden thus: "The Wolves have done it with a senior quarterback who didn't start playing football until last year but looks all the world like a Division I prospect who's been overlooked."
Edmond Santa Fe High School got a lot of mileage out of Brandon’s arm en route to that historic playoff run. Brandon recalls, “I remember one game I think I threw it about 50 times, which is kind of unheard of. We were a pass-first offense. It was very similar to what we did at Oklahoma State. That’s always been my forte, just throwing the football, so it’s been like that since High School.” Imagine that; a quarterback whose forte has always been throwing the football. Who would want that?
Interesting to note that, according to Brandon, his pass offense was approximately half-drop back and half-shotgun. “I would say we were 50 percent shotgun and 50 percent under center, a lot of play-action stuff from under center, did some drop back stuff, did some sprint-out stuff from shotgun. Kind of like what I did at Oklahoma State (prior to Dana Holgorsen’s arrival).”
With Edmond Sante Fa’s surprising playoff run in the books, Brandon Weeden was done with football for many years. He was chosen by the New York Yankees in the 2nd round of the MLB Draft (it was the Yankees’ first pick in that Draft). I knew that Brandon had considered college football a legitimate backup plan fairly early in his pitching career, so I asked him when he began to seriously entertain the idea of calling it quits on baseball and pursuing football:
“I think it was after the 2006 season, late in my career. I was going to give myself four to five years, and I ended up giving myself five, because minor league baseball you have a feeling whether you’re going to make it or not and I didn’t want to be a guy that’s in the minor leagues for 10, 11 or 12 years. I wanted to play college football if that was going to be the case, where I wasn’t going to make it. So I would say after that 2006 season, it became more of a reality. We talked about it, and that’s what I wanted to do. I went to Spring Training just to confirm it, and I ended up getting released, and I was in Stillwater in 2007.”
Some have printed some false information about the end of Brandon’s baseball career, specifically as it pertains to injuries in his throwing shoulder. There have been reports ranging from a torn labrum to torn rotator cuff, surgeries, pain during throwing, etc. Brandon wanted to make sure I knew that those reports were not true. There was no tear, there were no surgeries, and any pain in the shoulder was merely tendinitis that cleared up when he went from pitching a baseball to throwing a football.
“I spoke with all 32 teams’ doctors and not one of them, after taking a look at my MRIs, said there was even an issue. I haven’t had any surgeries, I haven’t had any serious, serious arm issues. I’ve been pretty lucky, especially since I’ve been at Oklahoma State. I haven’t had any shoulder pain at all, which has been really nice … I throw about 300 balls a practice. We throw the ball a lot. If there was any issue, I wouldn’t last five years (at Oklahoma State). I could go out there right now and throw for hours and not even be fatigued, it’s just something different about throwing a football than throwing a baseball.”
We mused on the tired, old (forgive the pun) criticism about Brandon’s age. He is 28 years old, and will turn 29 on the Sunday of Week 6 in his rookie season. I kidded with him that if he were born in the Dominican Republic, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. “I’d be born in ’91, for sure!”
Personally, I was not interested in the age so much as the circumstances that led to his being a draft prospect with an unusual birth certificate. That is to say, I was more intrigued by Brandon’s remarkable comeback from a significant layoff from football. You may be surprised to hear that, according to what they have told Brandon Weeden, NFL teams share my sentiment, at least as far as age not being nearly as big a deal for the evaluators as most would make of it:
“I talk to NFL teams about it; it’s not even an issue. Age is a zero, non-issue now. I’ve stated my case (to the teams) and they’ve tended to agree with me. Obviously it gets tiresome to talk about it all the time, but at the same time I’ve finally got it to where (teams agree) it’s a non-issue.”
As I said, I was more intrigued with the idea of a relatively inexperienced, late-surging High School football player taking a five year layoff from the sport, and coming back to play record-setting, championship calibre football. One could argue that Chris Weinke did the same with the Florida State Seminoles in his Heisman run, but any person who has examined film of the two quarterbacks as I have could not avoid the inevitable conclusion that Brandon Weeden has honed his skills at the position to a much, much sharper edge than Weinke ever did. The concept of coming back from such a long layoff and reaching such a pinnacle level of performance at a sport holds Hollywood-like fascination, for me. I had taken to, publicly and privately, referring to Brandon as the Roy Hobbs of football.
Yet, some argue that, on the contrary, Brandon had unfair physical advantages against his younger college teammates and opponents, due to his advanced age.
“I hear what everybody says, but go ahead and take five years off of anything, doesn’t really
matter what it is, there’s always going to be a period of knocking the rust off,'' he said. "I just tell them like it is, I didn’t play football for five years, and it’s tough to come back from. Once I got back into it, I think my experiences in baseball as far as adversity and learning how to deal with all of the things I had to deal with in baseball helped me mentally. But physically it was the same thing (for everyone on the team), we’re playing football. That’s the matter of fact, we’re playing football. You’ve got to be able to overcome the adversity of throwing an interception or the roller coaster of having some ups and downs ... But, the physical stuff, I don’t see a huge advantage.”
Despite the obvious talent that I believe we have all seen on the national stage a time or two, Mike Gundy did not seem a buyer for the better part of Brandon’s college career in Stillwater. In the previously linked piece written by George Schroeder for Sports Illustrated, Gundy was quoted saying Weeden did “zero to ever make us think he could perform well,” prior to his heroic second half save against the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009. I wondered if the circumstances involved in Brandon’s long layoff and his advanced age may have played a part in Brandon’s being kept third string (or worse) on the depth chart through his redshirt, freshman and sophomore seasons. An ageism lawsuit filed by a 26 year old? Ever the loyal soldier, Brandon wasn’t buying it:
“Not really. If you’re the third string quarterback, you’re not really getting many reps. I wasn’t really able to prove myself. And that’s any level, not just Oklahoma State. I couldn’t really get a chance to state my case. When I did play, I played well. I finally got a chance against Colorado in 2009 and I came in, came back and we beat Colorado on a Thursday night, and the rest has been written.”
Evaluation History
I first took a look at Brandon Weeden late in the 2010 college season. At that time, he was a redshirt junior, and I meant merely to take one quick look at a few games in case he should make the decision to come out. I could not stop until I had properly consumed 8 to 10 of his 2010 games, and spent countless hours cutting up film for YouTube, which can still be found here and here.
I wrote about Brandon’s pure talent level early, and often. Back on January 2, 2011 I wrote the following in the YouTube description of the highlights from his Alamo Bowl appearance:
Quarterback Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State is one of the most underrated prospects eligible for the 2011 NFL Draft in April. Having pursued a baseball career out of high school, he got a late start to his college football career and was forced to sit behind Zac Robinson for three years. He led an impressive second half performance that bailed the school out of what was shaping up to be an embarrassing loss on national television at the hands of the Colorado Buffaloes in 2009, with primary backup QB Alex Cate struggling during the first half. Weeden headed into 2010 as the unquestioned starter after that performance. I have been looking at Draft prospects for a long time, and I have rarely seen a first year starter in college be so natural, so physically talented, so cool under pressure, with a learning curve on such a steep incline. He got dramatically better as 2010 unfolded, re-writing a lot of school record books and even helping the offense claim some NCAA records. His accuracy, arm strength and pitch selection are off the charts for a college prospect. His ability to smoothly sense pressure and keep sliding away from it, using his arm and eyes to find the right throw, are uncommon. It is no coincidence he took only 8 to 10 sacks in 2010 (depending on your accounting). Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of his game is his maturity and calm nature, which allows him to forget early miscues, begin to see what the defense is trying to do to him, adjust and not allow a blowout to develop. The only losses Oklahoma State suffered in 2010 required the opposing offense to put up 51 and 47 points. I believe he and Andrew Luck are the most complete quarterbacks eligible for the 2011 NFL Draft. For quarterbacks in today's NFL, age is just a number. The rules are continuously tightened to prevent QBs from taking a pounding, and the result is lengthened careers. Teams should not be scared off by Weeden's age. Mark Sanchez was once selected in the top 5 with a similar level of starting experience as Brandon Weeden, but Sanchez did not have Weeden's athletic maturity or physical skill set.
Not a week later, after Andrew Luck shocked the Draft world by declaring that he would stay at Stanford for another year, I wrote the following in Weeden’s second compilation video description:
We here at Universal Draft have become somewhat fans of QB Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State, mostly because the player we see on the tape continues to go unrecognized within the Draft media. Brandon is a 27 year old redshirt junior who has finished his degree and could declare early. With the shocking news that QB Andrew Luck of Stanford has decided to stay in school, I believe Brandon Weeden may be the only 'complete' quarterback that could enter the 2011 NFL Draft. His combination of arm strength, accuracy, and understanding of how to use touch and ball placement are second to none. He combines that with a natural feel for pressure and the ability to slide away from it while still keeping his eyes upfield and finishing by using that God-given right arm of his to get the ball where it needs to be. All indications are he has a nice, grounded personality, and it shows on the football field. He has had a number of games where defenses have been able to confuse and pressure him into mistakes early, but his even-keeled persona has allowed him to settle in, make a bad day into a good day, and not allow the blowout to take shape. His understanding of defenses, mastery of his own offense, and eye discipline were all problematic early in the year, his first year starting, but the growth trajectory for all of the above was on a steep incline as Dana Holgorsen shared that he has never had experience with a quarterback that from the first game to the last made as much improvement as Weeden. That steep growth trajectory is a good sign of coachability at the next level. We believe that if Weeden were 5 years younger, he would be discussed as the potential #1 overall pick. However, the age and injury history to his throwing shoulder have to be accounted for, as does the relative inexperience.
Quoting previous descriptions and evaluations from 15 months ago for a potential present day 1st round target may look handing myself a large pat on the back. However, I assure you I have much more innocent, if perhaps lazy motivations:
The simple fact of the matter is what I wrote is as true now as it was then.
On this very blog, we evaluated Cam Newton as the #1 prospect in the 2011 NFL Draft back in mid-February of 2011, yet even my fan boy admiration of Newton’s combination throwing and running talent could not keep me from admitting that, had Weeden entered that Draft, he would have been the most complete passing prospect.
The Talent
When I break down a prospect, it is easy to fall into paralysis by analysis. You need to be thorough, evaluating every phase of a player’s game, but you also need to keep a clear vision of what exactly makes this player who he is.
If I had to describe, in only a few bullet points, exactly who Brandon Weeden is as a prospect, I would focus on the following standout attributes:
• Professional thrower with mastery over touch, velocity and accuracy at every level;
• High, bordering on too high confidence in arm, teammates and offense;
• Fluid feet that remain tuned in to eyes and reads from snap to throw;
• Naturalness, short learning curve, with a character trait of innate athletic dominance.
There is more to him than these four bullet points, but these four bullets keep firmly affixed in my mind exactly the player I see every time I watch him play the game.
Professional Thrower
This is clearly one of the first attributes that will stand out even to casual observers. However, you really have to see beyond the arm strength.
I have been ‘testing’ throw velocities through the use of video equipment and software, by whatever means possible, for upwards of eight years. Being curious about A.J. Feeley’s arm strength relative to that of Jay Fiedler at the time then-Dolphins General Manager Rick Spielman sent a 2nd round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles for Feeley, got me started on this path. My methods have evolved from hopelessly crude, to having a fair amount of precision. I would not say that I ever made it a significant part of my evaluation of quarterbacks. To illustrate, in my very large evaluations done on this blog for the likes of Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett and Colin Kaepernick, I never even made mention of the results of my velocity testing, though I mention several times my tendency to track true throwing distances (as the crow flies).
I make mention of it here for the simple fact that, of the upper echelon quarterbacks in this Draft, I found none that could consistently keep up with Brandon Weeden’s velocity on stick throws of between 18 and 35 yards through the air. In the games I looked at, Robert Griffin of Baylor was generally not close with his deceptive, wristy delivery. Andrew Luck’s velocity was not on the same level, nor Ryan Tannehill’s. Tannehill did make a good run at Weeden’s velocity when the two played one another in 2011, as Ryan was throwing the ball particularly hot that day. However, in other games, Tannehill’s velocity was lower, which points to inconsistency in his throwing.
That consistency which is lacking in some of the others is exactly what makes me use the term “professional” to describe Weeden’s throwing ability. It is not about the velocity. It is about the consistency of his arm slot, the consistent way the ball comes off his hand, the consistent spin on the ball, the mastery of touch both short and deep, and the consistency of the velocity on throws which require it. Having ‘tested’ the velocity of some professional football players, including the likes of pre-surgery Peyton Manning, I can say that the consistency of velocity is one of the traits that separate many of these college prospects from the professional throwers. Peyton Manning, for instance, may have seen his arm strength drop off to some degree in 2010 (prior to the surgery shenanigans in the off season leading into his absent 2011 season), but one could appreciate the very tight and consistent range that his velocity kept.
Brandon Weeden has that same professional throwing quality as a part of his skill set, and it is little wonder why. At 28 years old, he is entering his athletic prime at the position. Whatever lack of experience he suffered by being only a two-year starter in Stillwater was clearly more than made up for by throwing an absolutely astounding 300 balls a day during Cowboys practices. Further, his offense required a distribution of throwing distances and variation that was, for me, unmatched by the offenses of any of the other Draft prospects.
A year ago, I did a lot of work looking at quarterback release speeds. I have done a fair amount on this year’s class as well. This is the one facet of Weeden’s throwing that is not, for me, in the ‘A’ range. Brandon has a clean, quick delivery, but it is not especially fast like you saw out of a T.J. Yates from a year ago. It is not as fast as Ryan Tannehill’s three-quarters delivery. His release speed is a very common variety, especially when you take into account an occasional tendency to pat the football prior to release. I am not as wary of that tendency as some, because I believe the inconsistency in timing of patting the football makes it difficult for defensive players to really take it as a valid cue. Simply put, a throw does not always proceed from patting the football, and if a defensive back is caught hesitating because of it, he may find himself likely to be burned.
Confidence
This is a word that I brought up earlier, not coincidentally. Character traits like confidence tend not to be compartmentalized. They can be, at times, but more often than not when you see a guy display the sort of confidence that you see on the field from a Brandon Weeden, you are going to see it elsewhere. That is why I drew attention to the fact that Brandon had the Huevos Rancheros to ask Mike Gundy to be involved in the Offensive Coordinator search.
Confidence in arm strength can lead to many things, both good and bad. Having thrown 3 interceptions to the likes of Louisiana-Lafayette, another 3 interceptions in a surprise loss to Iowa State (though to be fair, 2 interceptions were on tipped balls), and 2 more interceptions en route to a blowout win against Tulsa, one clearly had to wonder if Brandon’s confidence bordered on recklessness.
“I think for me, I have so much confidence in my arm, so much confidence in making every throw … You have to be smarter with the football. That’s all in the decision-making. I think my decision-making was pretty good, I think you look back on all my interceptions, with the exception of a couple, the decision wasn’t all that bad, it may have just been a not very accurate throw on my part. So I think it just comes from over-confidence in my ability to throw the football. I’m extremely aggressive, that’s the way I play the game, just the way I approach it. I threw the ball 560-580 times and had 13 interceptions. That’s not very many. The ratio is pretty good. But I can get aggressive sometimes, and sometimes like I said I have a lot of confidence in my arm, confidence in my receivers, and that’s just one thing I need to get better with. Sometimes I need to just check it down, move on to the next play, rather than trying to thread the needle in a tight coverage situation.”
That same confidence in his arm, his teammates and especially his offensive system is also what leads him to so aggressively push the ball up the field, and make calls at the line that produce touchdowns. It is what allows Brandon to maintain poise in the pocket under a heavy rush.
Yet, this confidence does not come unearned. In talking about his quick grasp of the offense in 2010, with Dana Holgorsen teaching him, Brandon was quick to point out, “I spent a lot of time working on it. I took a lot of my own time trying to learn it because I knew I didn’t have much time, many starting years.” Confidence was both factor in, and product of his stepping up and taking partial ownership over the search for a new offensive coordinator in 2011. Who do you think spent countless hours huddled up with Todd Monken after his hire, teaching him a completely unfamiliar offense? As he modestly told George Schroeder of Sports Illustrated, “It’s not ‘Football 101’ With Brandon Weeden,’” however it is a simple matter of fact that Weeden was tabbed by Gundy to be “involved in the teaching process, because he knows more about (the offense) than anyone in the building.” Weeden described how the offense was under Holgorsen and how it adjusted under Todd Monken:
“That offense, the way (Dana) taught it was to throw to the open guy. It was more of a progression-read, you go through your progressions, and you have matchups, you have what we called pick-a-side where you pick a side of the field and dump it down to your backs if it’s not there. We kind of improved on it this year with Monken, there was a lot more depth, a lot more logic about going with the football in certain places … He coached me like a pro, which I loved, probably one of my favorite things about Coach Monk. He coached me like he would coach a guy in the NFL. He brought a different philosophy, you know we had a lot of quarter, quarter-halves to Blackmon and he brought a bunch of different ideas to the passing game that they use in the NFL, which has helped in talking to teams about things that will translate over.”
The concept of confidence earned through the thorough grasp and ownership of the offense was expressed with 37 touchdown throws, 4700+ passing yards and a 72 percent completion rate in 2011.
“It was always my job to get us into a better play … we always went to games with plays we felt like we could run against pretty much any look … you always had an answer on where to go with the football. We always had an answer with everything we did. For example we had a pass play on 2nd & 4, I wanted to check down to outside zone away, and it’s up to me to get us into that outsize zone, away from the pressure … (another example) if there’s a shade-under here, we want to run the stretch away. Before the ball is snapped, every decision is ultimately with me, getting us into the right play.”
Fluid feet
This is an area of Brandon’s game where I sense a lot of disagreement with my evaluation. Brandon Weeden’s feet are, for me, a defining feature of his game. Perhaps it was my upbringing watching Dan Marino operate from within the pocket rather than pulling the ball down and making plays like an athlete, but I learned to appreciate the quarterback traits that Brandon showed from within the pocket.
I find I have to distinguish the character of his footwork in certain ways. One thing that I do not believe should be up for dispute is the fluidness of Brandon’s feet as he sets up inside the pocket and works his progression-read. As I said in the bullet point, his feet are very in tune with what he is reading, and it makes him very throw-ready. Does this translate in more of a drop back setting? I thought that Weeden showed at the Senior Bowl that this is not nearly the issue some would make of it. Part of this is because of his experience dropping back from under center back at Edmond Santa Fe High School. However, Brandon made a point to remind us that is not the only reason he looked comfortable taking snaps from under center at the Senior Bowl:
“Even when I got to Oklahoma State, the offense we had from my freshman through redshirt sophomore year, we did some under-center stuff. When Zac Robinson was the quarterback, I would say we were about 75 percent shotgun but we still got under center and did power passes, all of the stuff. That’s what a lot of people don’t realize, everyone thinks of me as just a shotgun guy but I’ve played under center and that’s why I made the transition so easily at the Senior Bowl.”
Strictly speaking, he is certainly not the greatest of athletes. Though his 4.89 in the 40 yard dash to go along with his 32 inch vertical may have surprised some, they clearly do not rank up there with the likes of new wave athletic quarterbacks such as Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Ryan Tannehill. He does not throw on the move with the same accuracy that you will see from a Ryan Tannehill (who has uncommon skill in this area). Like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, nobody is ever going to confuse Brandon Weeden for a guy that you want leaving the pocket often, other than on designed rollouts.
One of the prime aspects of Weeden’s ability to deal with pressure does not really live in his feet at all. What is the primary way Brandon Weeden, or any quarterback for that matter, deals with pressure?
“It all starts with knowing where to go with the football, if there is pressure. That’s one thing I got better at if you watch the games, especially from 2010 to 2011 but even in just 2011 later on, I was getting the ball out of my hands. That was our thing, we didn’t want me to get hit, and we didn’t want me getting much out of the pocket if I didn’t need to. Know where to go with the football, always get (the pressure) picked up. That just comes with reps, being comfortable in the pocket, trusting the guys in front of you.”
This is the primary way that a quarterback should deal with pressure in the pocket: before it happens. The proof, for me, is in the pudding. According to data accumulated by rivals.com, Brandon Weeden was sacked only 20 times in his Oklahoma State career. That is 20 sacks on 1102 throws, a sack for every 55 attempts. That is outstanding. Playing in the same conference, Robert Griffin was sacked once every 15 pass attempts.
Yet, Weeden had no Russell Okung blocking his blind side. The highest rated draftable offensive lineman to come out during Weeden’s two years as starter is Levy Adcock, projected by many to be a late Day 3 prospect in the 2012 NFL Draft. One also cannot dismiss the lack of sacks as being a function of a myopic offense full of check down passes, either. Brandon Weeden threw deep and wide as much or more often than any other upper echelon prospect in this Draft.
To what do we attribute such successful handling of pressure? Again, it goes back to the issue of confidence, which is both innate and aided by preparation. Confidence in his arm gives Brandon Weeden the ability to make subtle moves backing away from or side-stepping pressure, without fear that the lack of perfect balance will damage the throw. Dan Marino himself is famous for a quote in Pat Kirwan’s book, Take Your Eye off the Ball:
“If I worked out a quarterback for an NFL team, he’d have to show me 100 throws off his back foot.”
An NFL pocket is not clean, and it requires active management. Marino managed the pocket with the kind of confidence in his ability to throw from any leverage. I see that same confidence in Brandon Weeden’s handling of pressure within the pocket. There are issues for him to work on, particularly a habit of stepping backward at times which can be coached into stepping up a little more often. However, you cannot coach the natural confidence Brandon has in his arm that he shows in his willingness to keep his eyes up the field and concentrate on dodging bullets from the inside of a phone booth rather than trying to pull down the ball and create athletically.
The other element of the confidence which enables Brandon to handle the rush so well is due to preparation and awareness. Weeden was one of the most adept passers I saw in 2011 at recognizing the blitz and knowing instantly how to beat it.
“If you look back, one of the teams told me out of however many plays I ran (564 pass attempts) there were only 94 pressures. Teams didn’t really blitz us all that much … We were so explosive offensively, teams started to blitz us, and then we’d exploit it, and then they sit back and play coverage. There’s some give and take there, but that’s one thing I think any quarterback in the NFL is not perfect at (dealing with pressure in your face), but it was something we all worked on.”
The pressure numbers tell the story, as does the game tape. One of the traits I noticed most often when watching Brandon play was his ability to get his offense into the right play, recognize blitzes pre-snap, make calls to have it picked up, and either throw quickly into the zone vacated by the blitzer, or have the confidence in your offense to pick up the blitzer so that you can throw opposite the defensive rotation as the defense attempts to quickly fill the zone vacated by their own blitzer.
Weeden and his center were both responsible for the protection calls. Because of the communication necessary in the Cowboys’ hurry-up, with Brandon communicating routes to the wide receivers, communicating to the backs and offensive linemen, getting everyone lined up, reading the defensive keys and adjusting the play accordingly, for the sake of timeliness the Oklahoma State offense asked the center to start the point of the protection call, but according to Weeden, it was up to he and the center both to “get it moving” from there.
Naturalness, Innate Athletic Dominance
This is a trait that is hard to describe, let alone quantify. Through the years, watching nearly two dozen of Brandon Weeden’s games while also getting exposure to his personality, his history, his learning curve, things said about him by coaches and others, there is a natural athletic ability in him that seems almost an intrinsic part of his character.
This is a guy that played high school baseball, basketball and football, made history with his high school football program in only his second year focusing on the position, was the highest pick of one of the most storied baseball franchises in Major League Baseball, made history with his college football program in his first year starting at the position, will soon be playing professional football, and decided to walk-on at one of the more prestigious golf programs in NCAA golf.
He had an exceptionally fast learning curve (the fastest Dana Holgorsen had ever been around) in 2010, his first year as a starting quarterback since 2001, only his third year of starting games as a quarterback in his whole life. By his second year of starting as a college quarterback, his fourth season playing the position his whole life, he was off to the races beating the likes of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Landry Jones and Nick Foles in head-to-head matchups, making a solid run at playing for the BCS Championship, and capping off probably the best season Oklahoma State football ever had.
There is something to him in the intangibles department, that when you marry with his impressive skill set and tangibles, has to be considered a homerun combination.
The Value
This is where the dreaded subject of age comes into play. Brandon may prefer to avoid it, and the scouts may tell him that it is a non-factor, but I know that it is a factor in those discussions at the top of the front office food chain.
There are a few ways to try and get your arms around the treatment of the age issue. One way is to look at history, and where guys with similar age issues have gone in past drafts.
Unfortunately, the only comparison is that of Chris Weinke of Florida State. Weinke went in the 4th round of the 2001 NFL Draft, which would lead you to believe that Weeden may legitimately drop to that round. Weinke was a Heisman Trophy winner and a National Champion. He had accolades and size, yet he dropped to the 4th round. The problem is that a simple viewing of Chris Weinke’s football games leading into the 2001 NFL Draft shows him to have the kind of pure throwing skills that you see much more commonly in the 4th round of the NFL Draft than the 1st round of the NFL Draft. I would have a disagreement with those that insist that a 22 year old Chris Weinke would have definitely gone in the 1st round. I would have drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round, despite his accolades, due to his lack of accuracy and ball placement, as well as the disturbingly inconsistent and unclean way the ball would often come off his hand. He had really good size and strength, some moxie as far as showing the athletic ability to move around and make plays, but he did not look to me like a very talented thrower of the football.
Another way to get your arms around Weeden’s value is by posing the hypothetical of where he would go if he were four to six years younger. In order to do that, you must first address the issues of longevity and learning curve.
In the case of longevity, I did a study of the number of career starts of quarterbacks in NFL history that did not get their first opportunity to start seasons until their late 20’s. One must remember that the very first reason a quarterback will cease starting football games is because he is not talented enough, so I limited the study to quarterbacks that had played in at least one Pro Bowl. The study was illuminating. The average age when this group of quarterbacks got their chance to start was 28 years old, which will be Brandon’s age at the start of the 2012 season. The average number of career starts covered enough for 8 solid seasons of starting. When limiting the study to players that played in at least two Pro Bowls, that number jumped up to 9 seasons’ worth of starts. If you nail the talent question on Brandon Weeden (which should always be the most important question), then you should be able to expect at least 8 seasons’ worth of starts. Notable quarterbacks involved in this study include Jim Kelly, Warren Moon, Kurt Warner and Roger Staubach, all of whom are (or will likely be) in the Hall of Fame.
The pure number of years Weeden will play should be reduced by the expected length of Weeden’s learning curve, which is hotly debated. Again, I found historical studies to be illuminating. Examining the modern era quarterbacks from Peyton Manning’s Draft through the present, limited to players who played significantly (100+ attempts) in their rookie and second years in the league, as well as after, I found that average NFL passer ratings in quarterbacks’ second years as pros were actually slightly higher than their career passer ratings. This points learning curves in the modern NFL quarterback being a little overstated by the media and traditional thought. More than ever, offenses are adapting to what their hot shot young quarterbacks did in college. The study points to a learning curve estimate for Brandon Weeden of about one year.
However, I would go beyond that, because of extenuating circumstances which suggest that Weeden may succeed to an alarming degree even as a rookie. For one thing, he was coached by a pro coach in Todd Monken, who taught him how to study film like a pro, how to practice like a pro, and taught him a number of pro passing concepts. Weeden was given a larger degree of ownership and control of the offense than one usually expects to see in a modified Air Raid. He was asked to challenge every area of the football field horizontally and vertically, like a pro quarterback. Then you have the intangibles, such as the short learning curve in 2010 as well as in high school, the ability to master multiple sports, the poise that saw him always able to snap out of a cold streak during a football game. In a league that saw two rookies, one a 2nd rounder (Andy Dalton) and another a 5th rounder (T.J. Yates), lead their teams into the playoffs, it is hard not to think Brandon Weeden capable of doing the same.
The lost years from Brandon’s age do count for something. But, how much exactly? Consider the salary cap ramifications. From a salary cap standpoint, the years Brandon will lose in his career are years from his 2nd and 3rd (expensive) contracts. One would think the “sweet spot” in terms of talent-to-salary ratio would be toward the end of a quarterback’s rookie contract (especially post-rookie wage scale), and the beginning of his 2nd contract. By the end of the 2nd contract and throughout the player’s 3rd contract, you may have one heck of an asset, but you are usually also paying one heck of a price for it, making it more difficult to build a team around the player (see: Indianapolis Colts, 2011). In other words, the years missing from Brandon’s career should not be worth the same as the years remaining to him.
If you look at Brandon Weeden next to a player like Ryan Tannehill, who is four years younger than Weeden, this could also give you perspective. Right now, the Cleveland Browns at #4 overall are wrestling with the idea of whether to take Tannehill. It is my belief that a 23 or 24 year old Brandon Weeden would win a battle for Draft position with a similar-aged Ryan Tannehill.
If that means that a 23 or 24 year old Weeden would not look out of place at #4 overall, it sets his high water value at 1800 “points” on the infamous Draft Value Chart. If you assume Ryan Tannehill to have a 12 year career, with 10 of them being high quality years, then Weeden at four years older should have an 8 year career, with 6 of them being high quality years, approximately 60 percent of the high quality years of a Tannehill.
However, as I said, the four missing years do not shake out as valuable as the six remaining. So, perhaps that puts a 28 year old Brandon Weeden’s value more toward 75 percent of a 24 year old Weeden. In chart terms, that would make Weeden’s high water mark priced at about the #9 overall pick.
Conclusion
Do not let the long discussion on valuation lead you astray. This is all about a feeling, a comfort level. I happen to have a background in finance and equities, and so I can speak the valuation language with the valuation guys all day long, but I do not prefer to draft on such a heavy valuation basis.
This all boils down to talent, because as I have said in past articles, you take a heavy risk when you let non-football issues cloud a football evaluation. Age is an issue that is not related to talent. Therefore, if you are allowing age to heavily impact your talent-based evaluation, you may be allowing your competitors to get the better of you in a league in which teams teeter on the slimmest of competitive margins.
I have been, and remain a buyer of Brandon Weeden’s football talent. I believe most folks will stop caring about “where” a team took Weeden sometime around his third or fourth 300+ yard passing day. You will not find me, for instance, torturing myself about how I would despise having to use the #8 overall pick on a Brandon Weeden, and would really prefer to trade down to #16 overall where I could feel more comfortable about the idea. That is not (my interpretation of) the Bill Walsh method of drafting, and it is not what I believe in. I believe if you have a crack at the right guy that will make the right impact, nobody will care where you ended up taking him. They will only care if he does not pan out, in which case you are mostly out of luck, anyway.
Will Brandon Weeden come into play for the Miami Dolphins at any point during the Draft? Weeden spoke with the Dolphins at the NFL Combine, although as of March 19th he had not had any further private one-on-one sessions.
“The time we spent together at the Combine went well, and I realize their situation … Obviously, (Miami) is a legit place … It would be a nice spot to play quarterback, for sure.”
Whether the Dolphins are willing to set their fortunes on Brandon Weeden is a more difficult question. The Dolphins showed by their pursuit of Peyton Manning that they are not married to the idea of a 10 or 12 year option at the quarterback position. They showed through their low ball offer to Matt Flynn that they feel they have options in the NFL Draft. However, the elephant in the room seems to be offensive coordinator Mike Sherman’s pupil, Ryan Tannehill, who is very talented in his own right, and four years younger than Weeden.
I cannot tell you exactly where Brandon Weeden will go in the NFL Draft. It seemed to me that his value may have been firming at the lower end of the 1st round, but it is almost impossible to tell how NFL teams (especially the few key NFL teams with need at the quarterback position) will view the age issue. There is no road map for it. The history of older, high caliber players entering the Draft is not extensive enough to draw a map. Teams disagree with my notions of value all the time, hence every year you still have teams willing to trade future draft picks for a present pick one round lower (a true pet peeve of mine, if ever there was one). I can only say that I would be very surprised if Weeden was available at Miami’s pick in the 2nd round at #42 overall, and would be flat shocked if he fell all the way to the 3rd round as Ryan Mallett did a year ago. It is well to remember that a year ago, the Advisory Board gave Weeden a 2nd to 3rd round grade, and he is a significantly better quarterback now than a year ago.
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and they will all forget that I always said he's a gamble...but for this draft it really doesn't make much difference if you select him at 22 or 67...talent pool is pretty even there, so I expect a QB starving team like us to get Weeden earlier (position value and scarcity) and then pick 1 of the MANY WRs, RBs left later...combo of Weeden at 22/37 and M.Jones/Jenkins/Criner at 67 is smarter than Wright/Hill/Randle at 22/37 and Cousins at 67
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