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We went through this a while ago but came across this article.

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2011 Run Stop Percentage: Linebackers
March 29th, 2012 | Author: Khaled Elsayed

If there’s one thing that irritates me more than anything, it’s people quoting tackle numbers at me as if a high tackle count automatically makes a player great.

It doesn’t.

There are a number of things that need to be taken into consideration when looking at the tackle stat, and being the type of people we are at Pro Football Focus, we go through them. The outcome? Well, we’ve got a stat that does a far better job of giving you an idea of which players are the most impactful run defenders in the league.

Yes, it’s our Run Stop Percentage Signature Stat, and for this piece we’re examining all linebackers (except those who play outside in a 3-4) who were in run defense for at least 200 snaps. That gives us 82 to dissect with some stats you won’t see anywhere else.



What’s in a Tackle?

Where better to start than looking at our tackle numbers? You’ll notice these are always different to the official ones as we have the rather easier job of jotting them down retrospectively. As for the player who leads the way, it’s none other than D’Qwell Jackson who recorded 19 more tackles than any other linebacker in run defense. Astonishing. In years gone by, the 74 tackles (not including assists) that London Fletcher managed would have led the way, but he could only manage the second spot in 2011, one ahead of Derrick Johnson in third.

Here are the Top 10 tacklers in run defense from 2011:
Rank Name Team Tackles
1 D'Qwell Jackson CLV 94
2 London Fletcher WAS 75
3 Derrick O. Johnson KC 74
4 James Laurinaitis SL 70
5 Pat Angerer IND 68
6 Donald Butler SD 65
7 Chad Greenway MIN 64
8t Ray Lewis BLT 60
8t James Anderson CAR 60
10t Curtis Lofton ATL 59
10t Nick Barnett BUF 59



So What?

But there’s an inherit problem in comparing the number of tackles each player made: some players are on the field more often than others. Until we came along there really was no way of looking at how many tackles a player made relative to how many snaps he played. Fortunately, we record every player on every play, and as a result we can tell you that no player in the NFL had a higher percentage of his plays in the run game end with him making a tackle than Desmond Bishop. He picked up a tackle on a rather remarkable 21.71% of all plays he was in on in run defense. That was significantly better than the man in second place (Donald Butler), who himself had a decent sized gap to third place (where Ray Lewis is firmly situated).
Rank Name Team Run Snaps Tackles Tackle %
1 Desmond Bishop GB 258 56 21.71%
2 Donald Butler SD 328 65 19.82%
3 Ray Lewis BLT 322 60 18.63%
4 NaVorro Bowman SF 315 58 18.41%
5 D'Qwell Jackson CLV 511 94 18.40%
6 London Fletcher WAS 408 75 18.38%
7 Joe Mays DEN 322 58 18.01%
8 Curtis Lofton ATL 343 59 17.20%
9 Brian Cushing HST 330 56 16.97%
10 Dan Connor CAR 281 47 16.73%



But Tackling Numbers are Limited, Right?

While Tackles Per Snap is a more meaningful number than simple tackles, it still doesn’t address one fatal problem with the tackle number: it doesn’t tell you where it happened and whether or not it represented a win for the defense. For this you need to look at the Defensive Stop stat that measures where a tackle was made relative to the down and distance. D’Qwell Jackson is at the top much as he was in the tackle stat, but it’s worth noting that while he had 20 more tackles than Derrick Johnson, he only managed two more stops.
Rank Name Team Run Snaps Tackles Stops
1 D'Qwell Jackson CLV 511 94 52
2 Derrick O. Johnson KC 476 74 50
3 Joe Mays DEN 322 58 46
4 Brian Cushing HST 330 56 46
5 NaVorro Bowman SF 315 58 45
6 Ray Lewis BLT 322 60 44
7 E.J. Henderson MIN 369 58 44
8 Curtis Lofton ATL 343 59 43
9 Daryl Smith JAX 404 51 43
10 Lance Briggs CHI 362 49 41
11 London Fletcher WAS 408 75 41



Which Brings Us to the Run Stop % …

To fully appreciate the how many stops a defender has made, you need to once again look at how much they’re on the field. That’s what brought the Run Stop Percentage Signature Stat to life; that desire to measure how often defenders were responsible for offensive failures relative to how often they were on the field. It’s through this stat we see that the Denver Broncos may have scored themselves a bargain with the re-signing of Joe Mays, as their middle linebacker led the league with a stop percentage of 14.29%. He was joined at the top by NaVorro Bowman who had an identical number as both men frequently left their mark on running backs.

Mays was one of a number of linebackers who were/ are free agents to fare well. Curtis Lofton was ranked sixth overall, a massive 42 spots ahead of a man he is likely to replace in Jonathan Vilma. The Henderson brothers also both impressed, with E.J. Henderson just edging out his brother Erin Henderson as they finished eighth and ninth, respectively. Cowboys fans will also be happy to note that Dan Connor excelled in this area (not a surprise to anyone who has watched him) with a 12th place finish. With Stephen Tulloch in 19th, this was certainly a year for teams to get linebackers who could make an impact in run D.
Rank Name Team Run Snaps Tackles Stops Stop %
1 Joe Mays DEN 322 58 46 14.29%
2 NaVorro Bowman SF 315 58 45 14.29%
3 Brian Cushing HST 330 56 46 13.94%
4 Ray Lewis BLT 322 60 44 13.66%
5 Perry Riley WAS 207 30 26 12.56%
6 Curtis Lofton ATL 343 59 43 12.54%
7 Donald Butler SD 328 65 40 12.20%
8 E.J. Henderson MIN 369 58 44 11.92%
9 Erin Henderson MIN 267 43 31 11.61%
10 Karlos Dansby MIA 317 48 36 11.36%
11 Lance Briggs CHI 362 49 41 11.33%
12 Dan Connor CAR 281 47 31 11.03%
13 Rey Maualuga CIN 318 49 35 11.01%
14 Colin McCarthy TEN 200 32 22 11.00%
15 Desmond Bishop GB 258 56 28 10.85%
16 Daryl Smith JAX 404 51 43 10.64%
17 Sean Lee DAL 282 45 30 10.64%
18 Sean Weatherspoon ATL 341 43 36 10.56%
19 Stephen Tulloch DET 379 57 40 10.55%
20 Derrick O. Johnson KC 476 74 50 10.50%





Of course, there’s more to playing linebacker and contributing in run defense than making tackles and defensive stops–you need to be able to stand-up blockers, blow-up fullbacks, and re-direct runners–but it doesn’t hurt if you can make those plays that result in a defensive win. The Run Stop Percentage does as good a job as any at showing who is really getting it done.


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Quote:

14 Colin McCarthy TEN 200 32 22 11.00%




Nice job, rookie.

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All of that to say what lots of us already knew about DQ (and our LBers in general)... the tackles happen too far down field.


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The point I was trying to make back then was although DQ is a great LB, I thought he would be just as effective if not more moving him to the outside and getting more of an enforcer in the middle. At the time I was trying to make a case that Burfict was that guy but now it could be anyone who could meet the RB closer to the line of scrimmage and fight off blocks but those guys don't just grow on trees. DQ would be just as great on the outside while we could upgrade the inside spot hopefully improving our D against the run. I know some will say why would we move our best LB outside, this chart should help to understand why. It isn't a necessity but in order to improve our Run D it is worth taking a look at and considering. There is also a chance that in year 2 of the same system that DQ figures out how to beat some of the fronts that he will see and blockers that he will have to fight through. Just something to think about.


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alot of better stats here, but obviously there are still problems. how many of those down the field tackles that DQ made were the result of guys like Jaymie Mitchell not holding the edge and allowing the RB to slice through the DL? or the result of DL not getting double-teamed and so there were more blockers to fight through for the LBers.

that was one of the reasons I didn't care about "overpaying" for Mario Williams. a great DL makes your LBers look much better


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Ok, after reading all of that.. I still don't understand how they figured the last stat.

"that desire to measure how often defenders were responsible for offensive failures relative to how often they were on the field."


What does that mean? What consitutes a failure? a stop? If a guy makes a tackle 4 yards downfield on 1st and 10, is that a stop? 5 yards? 3 yards? One could argue that as long as he stops them short of the first down then it was a failure for the offense.... It's hard to argue that a 9 yard run on first down is a failure for the offense but technically you stopped them from getting a first down.... What if he makes a tackle for a 3 yard gain on a dump off pass to the RB on 3rd and 6? By this he gets no credit because pass plays don't count... What if he makes a tackle 13 yards downfield but it was 3rd and 16? What if he makes a tackle for a 2 yard loss on first down but the offense gets the first down anyway.. then he really didn't contribute to their failure, he just made it harder for them to succeed, which they did anyway.

This seems like a very contrived stat... I understand their desire to not just lean on total tackles which has a lot of variables in it... but this seems to have just as many or more variables...


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No doubt that better D Line play will help the LB's. He is a tackling machine and is very active but I believe putting him outside and an enforcer inside would make us better than Leaving him inside and finding his clone for the outside. Anyway, I don't see them going that route this year so it is a non issue. If next year we don't significantly improve the run D, I would hope that would be something they look at.


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oh, I agree it can work the way you want and have suggested as much in the past.

I guess I'm just more resigned to the fact that we think we've plugged the DE hole and there are alot more WOLB in this drafts middle rounds that can be useful (L.David, S.Spence, T&R Lewis) than enforcer MLB (might have to take a chance on a guy like Hightower at 22 to do it).


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I can't answer any of your questions DC. Maybe you can send them an email to help better understand. I just know our Run D has been awful for years and there is a lot that factors into it. Maybe next year he leads in that category and it is a non issue.


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I remember when everyone was ga/ga over Wally Reiners ( spelling ) numbers and I said he sucked ( old board ) Boy did I get bashed for that one .. Funny thing , it was Diam who came to my aid ..

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Yeah, old Wali was a tackling machine ....... 7 or 8 yards downfield.

It always seemed like he was the guy who came up with the big 5 yard stop on 3rd and 4 ........ or the 2 yard stop on 3rd and 1 ........


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Yeah, Hightower crossed my mind as well. I have pounded this idea to a pulp and will take a lot of flack for it once again but would leave DQ there this year and use one of our 4ths on Burfict to groom him. I would sign a free agent to a 2 year deal that can play the outside. I wouldn't lock myself into a young draft pick who strictly plays outside when you have DQ and Gocong signed to long deals. If Burfict flops he was only a 4th, but has the mentality and tenacity to make a difference in the middle(if he gets his head on straight). DQ just might not be that guy in the middle that teams take notice of and stay away from. If anything you have a meat head for special teams for this year while evaluating him for the future.


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Good old Wally..I remember they had a fan section at the Stadium for him. Same with Andra Davis...He was tackling Machine, but none of them made an impact..


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well, Erin Henderson re-signed with Minny on a 1yr/$2mil contract, so I don't think we are going to sign any vet OLB this offseason if we wouldn't top that one (though I think Hawthorne is still out there).


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Heckert probably thinks he can sign a starting LB in the 6th or 7th round this year.

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Quote:

Heckert probably thinks he can sign a starting LB in the 6th or 7th round this year.




Hey, when you look at what we were starting with Butch Davis, that may not be too far from the truth.
Andra Davis was what... 5th rounder? Then we have who... Kevin Bentley and Ben Taylor, right?


So, we've got that to look forward to....


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As always you make my day more rewarding !

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lol, we've been at the bottom so long, there - eventually - has to be nowhere to go but up, right??


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Yeah, I heard we had some interest in Hawthorne and he would be ideal. There will also be some casualties after the draft and into Training camp that might be a good stop gap. Trying to think of what teams have changed defenses this year that might have guys under contract that are miscast if any, which might be a possibility. Also trying to think of our roster if any of those guys can step up. I am not as high on Maiva as I once was and some on this board are. I watched him pretty close when I could and was not impressed at all. JMHO


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That being said ..... I think that Heckert looks at certain positions as premium positions, and others as positions that can be filled later in the draft.

I think, on defense, that he looks at DT, MLB, and CB as 1st round positions. I think that these are the positions he places the most value on.

I think that he feels that he can find the DEs, (and he has said so) OLB, and S (IMHO) deeper into the draft. (although, with the dearth of college talent at S, maybe he might look at a great one in the first if one came along)

This isn't to say that he's looking for 6th round starting OLBs ....... but with tons of smaller WSLB in college, for example, the odds of finding one to fit our scheme in the 3rd/4th round are probably about as good as finding a premiere pass rushing OLB in the 1st. Many of those guys don't go until late, and teams try to convert them to Safety to fit their scheme, or they just pass entirely. That lets them fall to us.

It's like he has said about pass rushing 4-3 DEs ....... almost everyone runs a 4-3 in college ..... so there are tons and tons of those guys out there, and he had found excellent pass rushers into the 5th round with Philly.


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Quote:



I think, on defense, that he looks at DT, MLB, and CB as 1st round positions. I think that these are the positions he places the most value on.


I guess the only one left would be MLB to fill with a first rounder.


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I am definitely watching the RDE play this year ( again ) .. I mean we just let the best pass rusher on the line go and signed Frosty

Unlike some , I listen to what Heckert says AND hold him accountable ..

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