DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk 2025 NFL Draft Draft IV

How successful are quarterbacks drafted in Round 1?

Here are the numbers since 2010, and they are not encouraging

With the New York Giants seemingly considering selecting a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft, we have often talked about the hit rate, the percentage of time NFL teams get it right when drafting a quarterback in Round 1, being somewhere between 30-40%. Well, let’s show the work.

Below, you will find a year-by-year list of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 since 2010. There have been 43. Bill Barnwell of ESPN recently did a historical look of his own at quarterback hits and misses in the draft and provided a tiered grading system for breaking down the success or failure level of each pick.

I liked it and have adopted it, with my own judgment for which category each selected quarterback falls into.

Here is how Barnwell tiered the quarterbacks:

Hall of Famers are players who have either already made it to the Hall of Fame or have better than a 50/50 chance of making it to Canton someday.

Franchise quarterbacks are players who locked down their team’s primary job and played at a Pro Bowl level for a significant period of time, stretching well beyond their rookie deal, even if they aren’t going to be a Hall of Famer one day.

Solid starters are quarterbacks who were regulars for their teams without ever really challenging the upper echelon of the position, either because of a lack of ceiling, injury or other factors. These players might or might not have earned a second deal with their teams.

Low-end pro careers would include passers who bounced around the NFL as borderline starters or high-end backups without locking down a starting job for a significant period of time. Again, injuries could factor in here.

Disappointments are players who don’t fit into any of the above categories. They might have never earned significant NFL playing time, like Paxton Lynch, or struggled before ending their NFL career quickly, like Johnny Manziel. Teams might consider a solid starter or a low-end pro career as a disappointment depending on where they were drafted, but this group of players basically returned nil value given that it included all first-rounders.

I made one adjustment. I have listed the 2023 quarterback class in my breakdown, and added an ‘incomplete’ category for Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. It’s too early to tell where they will land. I did put C.J. Stroud in the ‘franchise’ category.

By the way, you may not agree but using Barnwell’s definition — regular starter for one team who got a second contract — I had no choice but to score Daniel Jones as a solid starter.

Round 1 QBs

2010

No. 1 — Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)
No. 25 — Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 1

2011

No. 1 — Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
No. 8 — Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans)
No. 10 — Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 12 — Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 3

2012

No. 1 — Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
No. 2 — Robert Griffin (Washington Redskins)
No. 8 — Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
No. 22 — Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 2

2013

No. 16 — EJ Manuel (Buffalo Bills)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2014

No. 3 — Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 22 — Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns)
No. 32 — Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 2

2015

No. 1 — Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
No. 2 — Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 2
Disappointments: 0

2016

No. 1 — Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
No. 2 — Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles)
No. 26 — Paxton Lynch (Denver Broncos)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 1

2017

No. 2 — Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears)
No. 10 — Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
No. 12 — DeShaun Watson (Houston Texans)

Future Hall of Famers: 1
Franchise QBs:
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2018

No. 1 — Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
No. 3 — Sam Darnold (New York Jets)
No. 7 — Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
No. 10 — Josh Rosen (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 32 — Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

Future Hall of Famers: 2
Franchise QBs:
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 2

2019

No. 1 — Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 6 — Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
No. 15 — Dwayne Haskins (Washington)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 2
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2020

No. 1 — Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 5 — Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
No. 6 — Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
No. 26 — Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 4
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0

2021

No. 1 — Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 2 — Zach Wilson (New York Jets)
No. 3 — Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers)
No. 11 — Justin Fields (Chicago Bears)
No. 15 — Mac Jones (New England Patriots)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 3

2022

No. 20 — Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2023

No. 1 — Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
No. 2 — C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
No. 4 — Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0
Incomplete: 2
Totals

Future Hall of Famers: 3
Franchise QBs: 7
Solid starters: 6
Low-end pro careers: 7
Disappointments: 18
Incomplete: 2

That’s 16 out of 43 drafted quarterbacks currently in the ‘solid starter’ or above category, a hit rate of 37.2%. If you are looking for Hall of Fame or absolute franchise quarterback as your standard, that’s 10 of 43, or 23.3%.

The disappointments category has 18 names or 41.8%. Combine that with the seven quarterbacks in the ‘low-end’ category and that is 58.1% who did not or have not yet given teams what they hoped to get out of a first-round quarterback.

This means the historical expectation would be that if five quarterbacks are taken in Round 1, only two will have careers justifying the draft capital used on them.

Barnwell summed up what teams needing or wanting a quarterback should do, and what they should expect, this way:

In the big picture, what we think of as the typical first-round quarterback is a lot more impressive than what teams actually project to land, especially after adjusting for where they’re being selected. As we approach the 2024 draft and what might be an unprecedented run of quarterbacks from Nos. 1 to 4, history tells us it would be a pleasant surprise if two of them turned into franchise-caliber passers. We’re more likely to see two players who wash out of the league than two future Hall of Famers.

And yet, at the same time, knowing history shouldn’t stop teams from drafting quarterbacks. Taking a quarterback in Round 1 is more valuable now than it has ever been, arguably, in the history of the game. If the Bears, Commanders, Patriots or any of the other teams linked to signal-callers have a quarterback they love in the first round, they should do what they need to do to land them. Just have a healthy expectation for what might happen next.

I can’t argue. If you have a need and a chance, you have to take the swing. Odds are, though, that you are going to get it wrong.

https://www.bigblueview.com/2024/4/11/24103804/how-successful-are-quarterbacks-drafted-in-round-1

Now let's hear all the "yeah but" when advocating taking a swing on a QB in weak QB draft class. History is trying to tell you something.

I've seen stuff like this a lot on X.



It's not really on Milroe, though. 6 can't whiff on the block. The read was "fine", WR in front has to execute. Screens take a lot of coordination. QB did what he was supposed to there. You can see the Bama HC say what looks like "Come on Man" to Prentice (the receiver who's off the screen.)

DeBoer's offense (and a QB's "anticipation") requires everyone to do what they are supposed to. Not everybody else did. It was a fairly regular occurrence.

You can't really tell how many times it was another guys screw up causing a negative outcome by looking at the stats. Got to actually watch the tape (and everyone on it, not just the ball) to really understand what happened and why.

You've got to trust the other players on the team for some plays to work. Unfortunately, Milroe's trust was the opposite of rewarded a lot last season.

Just from all the stuff I’ve read about these QBs, with the possible exception of Ward, we shouldn’t take a QB at 2. Too many question marks for all of them. Trade up, sure, get Dart or another guy we like.

I’d feel better if we took Abdul Carter and see what Schwartz can do with him and Garrett as bookend rushers. I wouldn’t be upset with the WR/CB kid from Colorado.

Everything I read says don’t take a QB early this year. Which is why we’re taking one.

I feel like a good number of those “disappointments” or low level starters may have had a very different story had they gone to better teams with better systems for bringing along young talent. But bad teams are the ones taking QBs early and they screw them up. We’ve certainly had our share of that scenario. I can’t help but think this is that year for us again. Every team thinks they’re a good team capable of nurturing and building around young talent and are really only a few pieces and little fairy dust away from destiny. We are neither a very good team currently nor a couple pieces away. We feel desperate.

I also thought we should trade Garrett and load up on picks for next year but yea, no. I vote Hunter but I don’t get a vote. We will try to force it with a low ceiling QB, start him 4 or 5 games into the season and I’m sure it’ll work out just great.

I don’t think bad teams necessarily ruin QBs. Some of them, sure. But a good QB can elevate those around him, in fact it’s part of the job description. I could provide many examples of a young QB who did just that, we’ve even seen that recently in Stroud and the Washington qb.

I just don’t believe we’ll find our guy at #2.

You're pretty much where I'm at. Not to rehash the past so much but I think it's highly relevant when discussing this draft. The Browns haven't had a first round draft pick in the past three drafts. Not only do they have one in this draft, it's a very high pick. It's an opportunity to get a blue chip player on a four year rookie deal with a fifth year option. That's as good of an opportunity as they can get.

I get that there's no guarantees in the draft. But ignoring the odds isn't a wise path to follow. As you can see from my OP when teams reach for a QB in a weak QB draft class the results are usually catastrophic. As with you I don't mind if they trade back up later in round 1 to draft one of these guys. But with very little young talent on rookie deals I don't want to see that #2 pick end up being wasted with a desperation move.

I am concerned with AB being in the position he is currently in he may feel desperation is the only move that can save his job right now. He may very well be in QB or bust mode. I'm not even saying that's purposeful. When your back is up against the wall desperation can skew your vision. But then from the sounds of it so are many fans from what I'm seeing in other places suffering from that same symptom. The problem is, if they get the QB position wrong again they'll be back at ground zero for years to come. Everyone will be fired and a compete new rebuild will be under way. I don't know if I can take going through all of that again. I'm not getting any younger.

Agreed. I don’t know whom our FO is sold on but if I was drafting I would take Carter at 2. If he’s not there then Hunter. They’re the 2 best players in this draft. If Dart is still there at 33 I would take him. If not I would take the BPA or maybe Slough. I would let the draft come to us. We need some young talent. JMO

Another point is any QB we draft this year is probably not going to play much. We can still take one this draft and hope he develops. We can also draft one next season in what looks like a better QB class. I don’t know where we will be drafting next year but it probably won’t be out of the top 10.

I agree, especially with your last sentence. You can't pick a guy at 2 who doesn't really deserve it, just because you need that position desperately. Your team needs has nothing to do with how a player will perform. Maybe this information is out there, but I would love to see how each draft year's QBs would rank with prior years options. For instance, how would Ward, Sanders & Dart rank, if compared against the Baker, Allen, Rosen, Darnold & Jackson prospects if they all were available this years draft. You can do the opposite also, comparing them to years when QBs weren't a strength position of a draft.

Plus, I think there is a tendency to elevate young QBs to superstar/franchise status if they have decent success a year or 2 into their careers. I generally wait until at least year 4 or 5 before I try to evaluate the pick.

I’m not saying this class has no QBs that will make it in the NFL, but I see no Franchise QBs to be had upon closer analysis and speculation. But we’ve been surprised before, so the Browns will do what the browns do.

Yeah, I have no clue what direction they'll go. It will make for some very interesting viewing. After the entire watson debacle I'm not as emotionally invested in the entire process as I used to be.

j/c:

j/c:

I obviously have no intel on this, but I have a hunch the Browns FO is enamored with the prospects of Jalen Milroe.

1. Plays that indicate a high ceiling
2. Top-end arm strength
3. Extremely athletic
4. All the physical tools and body frame

He has flaws and clearly needs to develop, but I think this FO like the elements that you can't teach and he has them. Plus, I think they trust Stefanski for that development.I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked in the 2nd round, especially if we are still able to get another vet QB.

I suppose I've come to like him more as time goes on as well. I wouldn't be mad if we "reach" and took and him in the second if he is someone we like and wouldn't be shocked if the Browns don't want to play cute waiting to take him in the third or trade back up to get him. .

Doesn't Tommy Rees know him? thought I read that somewhere

I'd be mad. Maybe I read your post wrong, but passing up legit top5 talents for a QB that may or may not pan out (this is the takeaway I got from your post) is a bad move.

If they do take Milroe I think it would look similar to how the Rats took Jackson. I think they would wait until the Eagles are on the clock and trade back into the 1st to get the 5th year option. I know this is the smoke screen time of year but both Stefanski and Berry was saying decision making and accuracy were their most important traits they were looking for. I have heard though Milroe has made an impression with teams due to his great work ethic and character. Is that enough in combination with his 4.37 speed to move him up the draft boards? We will see.

That's a great point, especially for a QB.

Only one rep for Cleveland apparently and it isn't Andrew Berry.

I would think that if the Titans like what they see of Ward that’s where he’s going.

I'd be mad. Maybe I read your post wrong, but passing up legit top5 talents for a QB that may or may not pan out (this is the takeaway I got from your post) is a bad move.[/quot

I agree completely. It has never made sense to me to select a weak position with a high pick, just because you desperately need help with that position. You wanting the best available QB to be your answer, when the evaluations say he isn't, is like having financial problems, but a decent, not great job opens up, and you throw a coin in the fountain hoping you win the lottery.

Way too many examples of QBs drafted way too high/forced in round 1 who contribute either nothing or are mediocre. Every year draft experts analyze the QBs and every year they suggest teams reach for these guys.

I think Memphis is referring to taking him at #33 (2nd round) not with the 2nd pick in the 1st round.

"took and him in the second"

Correct.

This is a give away too....."wouldn't be shocked if the Browns don't want to play cute waiting to take him in the third or trade back up to get him. ."

Honestly, I think it's overrated. If the player is good, you're going to try to extend him before then anyways. If he's good, you won't really care about having slightly less leverage in negotiations. If he's not good, you don't really want to pay the fifth year number.

I'm not against a trade up to make sure you get the guy you want, but it's not really for the option, to me, so it'd be higher than 32 most likely. So hard to get a read on how other teams truly feel about the QBs.

I'm in the middle and definitely agree with your premise as far as simplicity to the approach. I'm not going out of my way to make him a first rounder if I'm drafting later. However, if I'm trading about the same assets to move up, I'd take 32 over something a few picks later and be damned happy about the fifth year option.

So many things can happen during the first few seasons with a QB. You're exercising the fifth year option before he starts his 4th season. I think that can do a lot to keep a young QB out of his own head when pondering the future. Especially if one of the three seasons was less than stellar, sophomore jinx, third year correction, etc. Also helps extend the decision process in the case of injuries.

It gives everyone some breathing room because it's a basic win-win for both sides. And let's face it, we can name dozens of QBs that you wouldn't kick to the curb but may not feel like "selling the farm" in year three. Trevor Lawrence is a good example: MVP candidate after year two, INT machine the second half of year three. Exercising his option was a no-brainer. After the injuries last season, all parties are happy about the fifth year option.


*Edit: I should clarify that I'm speaking in generalities. I know we have the 33rd. I definitely wouldn't trade assets to move up one spot to 32 so that I could have a fifth-year option. 🤪

Tommy was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at the University of Alabama in 2023.

I did read your post wrong. My bad.

j/c…

Titans putting on a show to try and get a team to try and give them a haul to trade up for Cam Ward.

Glenn Cook played for Miami and has all the connection with university and coaching staff.

No need for Berry to be there. It’s simple. Either the Titans take him at #1 or he falls in the Browns lap and they take him at #2.

Agreed. It was just the contrast of bodies and titles for TEN than CLE. Plus, the scouting of Ward has gone on for years. Berry being there or not is of little significance.

j/c:

This isn't a hard take or anything, but considering how deep the RB class is this year, players like Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins (with past injury concerns) might have to wait until the draft is over to sign with a team.

**Doing my own version of Terry Pluto's "talking to myself" about the draft**

I think I'm still on the Abdul Carter train if we decide to select someone at #2. If we don't like a QB at #2, we sure as hell need to find any way possible to apply pressure to and stop the likes of Jackson and Burrow 4 times a year combined for who knows how many years into the future. Especially if (1) we take a developmental QB project and run with ta vet or (2) wait until next year for our guy. And I generally like the idea of building in the trenches. Carter possibly helps all of that.

That said, I wonder if there comes a point where adding another "elite" DE (with the likes of Garrett on the other side) doesn't really move the needle as much as I would want it to as it relates to pressure on the QB? And we could get close to the same pressure results with people in the current DE rotation or draft someone this year in the later rounds because Garrett is just THAT good, where other players can make a bigger impact to a position group....

....That said, a guy like Hunter would immediately add to the offense, if Berry was being truthful about is preference of Hunter as a player, to build an offense that needs as we all know, a lot of help. The guy just seems like a athlete through and through.

Just thinking out loud.

I sort of look at it the way you do. Hunter is not only a blue chip prospect but also adds an element the Browns are in need of. It's just so hard to walk away from what is projected to be a dominant pass rusher. I could see the argument made in both directions and wouldn't be disappointed with either pick at #2.

I've been out of the loop so to speak. Around the time of the combine it was reported that Carter had a microfracture in his foot. Reports of possible surgery were out there. Is this still a concern?

I don't believe so. I could be wrong, though. Last I heard was that it won't require surgery.

I can get on-board with the idea of bringing in Carter to pair with Garrett with the long-term goal of trading Garrett away. I do agree with you that DE isn't some missing piece of our D.

I've been having the same debate regarding Hunter and Carter. I'd take either one. I think I err on the side of Carter because having a dominant pass rusher opposite Garrett is not something we've really had. We've had decent to good players over there, but never to the point where the other team has to game plan for both DE's.

Dear Memphis Pluto,

I submit the following....





Travis Hunter is an incredible athlete, indeed. However, I believe there is a reason Jay Glazer reported that 12 of 13 GMs he spoke with stated they saw Hunter as primarily a DB with occasional package plays at WR. Also, Travis Hunter weighed in at 188lbs at the combine...







IMO, if you want an offensive playmaker and are not taking a QB, I'd rather trade down and take Tetairoa McMillan over Hunter.

PROFILE NAME CHANGE!!

I'm uneasy of Carter's stress reaction in his foot. Will this be a long term problem that will eventually need surgery? He's had plenty of time to rest it leading up to his pro day, but what happens when the football season and training camp gets underway? Maybe it never becomes an issue or maybe it is something that plagues him.

Interesting info. Thanks!

And yeah, I know intel has suggested that most teams see Hunter as a CB with offensive packages here or there. I suppose, even if that's the case, Ward and his 1 million concussions aren't getting any younger and could certainly help the secondary position group. I suppose it's where the most position utility could be gained at the selection. I guess adding to the CB group could be another consideration that I did not include but suppose maybe Berry's thoughts are aligned with the tweets you shared and why he is allegedly focused on him as a WR.