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the browns could also just give him the 75k not to play couldn't they? I mean I would think its discretionary.

I have no idea if an NFL team can just slide cash to a player outside of the contract boundaries. I've seen it brought up and suggested in several FB posts but have no idea if that violates any NFL contract rules. I would guess that there is a probably be a rule against it. Not for this particular situation per say but if NFL teams were allowed to pay players beyond their agreed upon contract agreement when they felt it was the right thing to do or it suited their purpose it could be manipulated to circumvent the salary cap. From my understanding the money your team pays its players according to the salary cap is determined by the contract numbers and you can't deviate away from that unless you are signing new players.

Yeah, it would violate pretty much every contract rule, lol

Just have him take the first snap and hand off to the RB. He merely has to "help the Browns win" to earn the $75k.
Of course, it also means we have to actually win, so depending on how the backups are doing, it could cost him.

Of course, the REAL money comes the following week when we get to the playoffs.
He’ll earn $250,000 for a wild-card postseason win, $500,000 for a divisional round playoff win, $1 million for an AFC championship game win and $2 million for bringing Cleveland a Super Bowl title.
So, there is $3.75 million waiting for him that can help him forget the $75k he might miss out on.

I figured he could just come in to take a knee when we are inevitably up by 50 points at the end of the fourth.

^^^THIS^^^


Is my thinking, as well. My numbers may vary from Prp's, but my take is exactly the same.

Too much time off can be just as detrimental as not enough time off. Sitting everyone who is dinged (but functional) would be a mistake, imho.
Stef&Crew must play individual players according to their specific situation. Some guys sit/some guys play more (an/or) less than others. Then, use this game to do what NFL winners have done for years against teams like the Browns: give your developmental players some real gametime NFL experience in prep for next year.

This is the very first time the Browns have been in this situation since The Return. They should take their cues from teams who have tons more experience finishing seasons like this.


.02

Not bad, for 4 weeks of work.
BUT:


-Something tells me that money isn't what's motivating this guy. He's playing like someone with something to prove.
I'm sure the money is a bonus, but his Family Wealth Portfolio is most likely already set for life.

Nope.

This Dude isn't playing high-stakes, year-end pro football for the money.
He's doing it because he believes in his heart that he is still The Game.
And we have him, at just the right time.
#lightninginabottle

I think #15 was 'antsy-waiting' on the couch, and would have responded with this much gusto for any NFL team who actually cared enough to reach out to him.
He's just that kind of guy.

76 Berea was that (only) team who reached out. We CLE fans are lucky enough to have a FO that actually did what 31 other NFL teams didn't... and now, we can see where that gamble has gifted us: A 38 year-old SB-winning QB with nothing to lose, everything to prove... and a new chapter to write for himself, before retirement.

If he could pull off an NFL championship as QB wearing the uniforms of both teams that had their start in 1946, it would be a story worthy of enshrinement in Canton.


In Joe We Trust.
Sling it, Big Boy...


_________________________


This season is melting my brain.

I haven't seen any rankings even close to this anywhere.

Me neither. Browns sitting here tempting me to lay down a decent wager. Just need one win and then hedge it as I see fit for strong profit, almost a no-brainer! As of this morning...

Probably not a bad idea. That's much closer to what I've been seeing too.

The most bets aren't the odds of wining a game. They are very different things. As far as power rankings go every actual betting site I've seen where money is involved are very close to what FATE posted. As he stated, he hasn't seen anything close to what you posted either.

CBS has them 9th in odds to win the SB.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...vens-as-favorites-before-playoffs-begin/

FOX too has them at ninth in odds to win the SB so I have no idea why their power ranking would differ from that so much.

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-odds-favorites-to-win-2023-24-super-bowl

USA today also has them ranked 9th.

https://www.usatoday.com/betting/sports/nfl-super-bowl-odds

I could go on to show you several more like this but pretty much everyone knows the Browns are generally placed 8th to 9th on most all of these lists.

That's what makes this a potentially lucrative betting opportunity. Once a team reaches the playoffs (in any sport) with odds above 25-1 (+2500), the math doesn't lie. You just have to risk the initial investment (or most of it) thru the first two rounds. I won money on the Cavs in their first Finals appearance. I placed the bet the very second I knew they would make the playoffs because they were 35-1 to win the 'chip. Most of the profit was decimated by the Spurs being such heavy favorites (and the Cavs being fairly heavy dogs in every series), but it was still guaranteed profit all the way through once we got past the first round. This is a much better situation. The Browns will never be a heavy dog after the division matchup, and you're not putting enough weight on that game for the negative odds to have an exponential effect moving forward.


Correct me where I'm wrong, Dawgs. I would like some of the gamblers to weigh in and tell me what I'm missing. The only thing that can thwart the plan, mathematically, is the Browns in a heavy underdog situation beyond the division round. I don't see how that is even possible. We will have likely beaten two division winners, one of them probably Baltimore.


Approach: Be willing to lose your $100 if you lose the first game (cost of admission).

Be willing to break even if you lose second game.

Capitalize on remaining odds to take escalating profit from that point forward (assuming you have won the first two).

Bet money line on all games.

Your initial bet is $100 on the Browns to win the Super Bowl at 35-1 (+3500)



Game one:

Browns LOSS -- $100 loss
WIN -- Most likely on to a better team on their turf. Probably Baltimore, so lets assume that's true and mock this out with the some probably crappy odds on that money line.


Division playoff:

Since you are always betting on the other team to hedge your bet, Baltimore will probably be -200 and leave you with a fat tax. Maybe not... depends on our first performance. Everyone in the world knows we've faired as well vs Lamar as just about anyone in the league. We'll still assume they're -200... BET 200 to win 100

Browns LOSS -- Break even overall
WIN -- you now have $300 invested and your remaining odds are essentially just under 12-1


AFC Championship:

If the Browns have knocked off two teams, including a (somewhat) heavy favorite, the odds will tighten significantly, Browns may very well be the favorite (good for you since you're betting on the other team). Let's assume we're still dawgs... can't see the money line being much worse than -130 for the opponent. And in all fairness, I think I've been very conservative to this point. Even with just the first wild card win the Browns will become the media darling and betters will flock to the feel good story -- keeping the money line stable (if not low) on the opponent. And even if the Ravens were heavier favorites, that bet doesn't take that much of a bite out of the math.

Bet 700 on opponent to win 530

Browns LOSS -- you win $230 overall
Browns WIN -- you're now invested at $1000 and have 3.5 -1 odds for the Super Bowl.


Super Bowl:

You've taken most of the upside off the bet in favor of clean profit. Odds should be very close if the Browns have slayed these giants. We'll still give the benefit of doubt and adhere to conservative... Opponent -120.

Bet 1800 to win 1500 on opponent.

Browns LOSS -- you win $500 overall (1500 payday after previous 1000 in losses)
Browns WIN -- you've now lost 2800 in all your game bets but win $3500 on the Browns Super Bowl win = $700 profit.

If you're loving the Browns and want to capitalize more on the win -- cut more profit out of the hedge bet -- Bet 1500 on the opponent to win 1250.

Browns LOSS -- you win a modest 250
Browns WIN -- you walk with a cool $1000 and to spend on hotel and party for the Super Bowl parade! 🤩


Also: Better money line odds (in the Browns favor) or the Browns being favored in either the AFCC or SB raises the profit potential significantly.

Huge upside, very little downside. I know it sounds intimidating laying out the extra money for the bets along the way but it's simple accounting and will be returned in the end.


Am I crazy?? Rish? Milk?

That is certainly one way to do it from a risk management approach to come out with a profit when betting on one team throughout the playoffs. The hotel and party for parade is a nice touch as well.

However, here's a more fun approach:

Take the allotted $2,800 and do the following:

Place $1400 on the Browns +1800 to win the AFC Championship. Collect your $25,200 and book a flight, hotel room (if you stay at Aria ask for the Billy Manziel suite) and Super Bowl ticket.

Place the other $1,400 on the Browns +3500 to win the Super Bowl. Upon conclusion of the Super Bowl and amongst the pandemonium of the Browns win, watch the $49,000 hit your account and go nuts in Vegas.

Place the bets now! It's the season of dreams.

That seems so much easier!

You gamblers fascinate me.
You have a jargon and vernacular all your own. I read your English, and it sounds like Klingon.

I was raised Baptist, so gambling is totally foreign to me. The numbers, the odds... gibberish. Can't find a way to make myself care. Moving money isn't what moves me.

BUT:

I love that there exists a myriad of ways in which we can all get our inner nerd on.

I've found my people.

Hey bro, it's been a pleasure reading through your recent posts today.

Are we having fun yet?! 😁

I couldn't agree more. I consider myself to be a fairly intelligent person, outside of trying to comprehend anything scientific, but some of the gambling lingo seems like cold fusion equations to me.

Steelers won but haven't clinched...what scenario keeps them out?

Bills win. I think.

Steelers get in with either a Bills or Jags loss.

I hate that the Stiller can slink back into the playoffs.
Go Bills, Go Jags.

We have to play some of them.

It’s been an experience, my friend Clemmy. It’s been a beautiful, surreal ride this year. Everything that could go wrong pretty much did, and yet this team just kept plowing forward, like it was oblivious to everything happening. These are the perfect collection of players and coaches for us at this place and time. I will enjoy it all, no matter what happens from here out this season.

Have they announced when they are going to start picking times for next weekend matchups?

Welp, the team I least wanted to play in the 1st round is the lock. Houston’s O looks like a poor man’s Ravens. Our D is going to have to dial it up. But let’s be real, our D is going to have to be lights out every step of the way.

Jags looked so delightfully incompetent, I was really rooting for them to pull it out, but nope.

It looks like if Buffalo gets a home game next weekend, they are going to be dealing with some shoveling.

Y’all see the seedlings? There’s no division winner who’s a lock to win their home game in the first round

Curious thing… looking at the brackets, if we win this game we play the Ravens next? I don’t know why I assumed we wouldn’t see them until AFC championship.

j/c...

Wasn't that a thing way back in the past? Division opponents wouldn't play until the League Championship??