DawgTalkers.net Forums DawgTalk Pure Football Forum Trends

Interesting topic.

I wonder if two opposing trends can be true at the same time?

For example:

--It is a trend to make hay while your qb is on his rookie contract. You can afford to pay other players more money. The key is that you need to find the right qb and evaluating how collegiate qbs will do in the NFL is very difficult. For example, guys like Wentz, Goff, Trubiski, Rosen, Baker, Darnold, etc have proven to not be the guy while guys drafted lower like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lamar, Watson, etc have proven to be better than qbs drafted ahead of them. I still think that finding a great QB in the draft is the way to go.

--On the other hand, the last two Super Bowl champions acquired QBs and went all in on spending money to win it all. Tampa Bay got Brady in FA [imagine if we would have acquired him w/that roster we had in 2020] and then brought in guys like Gronk, Fournette, AB, etc. The following year, the Rams moved on from Goff and sold the farm for Stafford. They brought in a ton of talent and won it all.

--I think in the box safeties should be phased out. I am not a fan of guys like Peppers, TJ Ward, etc. You need safeties who can cover.

--Young receivers are making more of an immediate impact than ever before.

--I think teams need at least three excellent corners in this pass happy league.

--I think athletic TEs that can exploit Cover 2 are becoming a necessity.

Along those lines, Jok should have been drafted higher than he was bit fell because teams have uncertainty on what to do with a guy like that. He is at the point of the spear on that trend.

Another guy who may fall because he is a smaller linebacker is Nakobe Dean. If he fell into our laps in the 2nd could we pair him with JOK or is that going too far?

I think a huge trend is offenses being run by guys from the Shanahan/Kubiak tree. Right now we have Kyle Shanahan, McVay, LaFleurs (Mike and Matt), Mike McDaniel, Kevin Stefanski, Arthur Smith, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Taylor, and Shane Waldron. That’s ten offenses running very similar schemes. We saw last year defenses started taking away the bootlegs off of play action. It’ll be interesting to see how the offenses adjust in 2021.

The box safeties of the past are just going to be linebackers now. JOK is a linebacker but ten years ago he would have been classified as a strong safety.

Trends or scheme changes ?


Why do people think football is such a difficult game to play ?



Offense or defense you line up and make a call on how the look of the play will result. you have one outcome. The right call or the wrong call.

1. Safeties becoming a higher priority over linebackers is telling. Hybrid OLB/SS/Slot Corner combo!

2. QBs becoming a bigger addition to the run game. This addition may allow teams an avenue to be successful without the need for a pocket-passer. The Saints almost made do with Taysom Hill. The Ravens are doing well with Lamar Jackson. I think a pocket-passer is still the winning formula. With the spread so highly used at the college level, someone shortly will make this work in the pros.

3. I'm not sure it's a new trend but the use of the TE. Teams looking for the 6'5" guys who can catch and block. Teams are using the TE more and more to help the tackles. Stretching the field with receivers and checking it down to a TE.

4. Again, I'm not sure this is new. Receivers becoming more specialized. Teams are drafting receivers who can either stretch the field, intermediate, or short-passing routes.

Last year we saw McVay give up on Goff whom took them to the SB, because he knew he needed a QB that could make all throws and stress the defense. The continual chess match will be fun to watch across the league.

Great article...

https://readoptional.substack.com/p/how-nfl-defenses-are-evolving-to?s=r

The NFL is finally catching up to the college game.

As teams spread out and passed the ball, defenses had to adapt. Defense across the league had to get faster. The logical place to have seen the biggest impact is the LB position. Teams have had to replace thumpers with speed. A traditional nickel is now pretty much a base set for teams. It might even be bordering on a dime set of sorts for some teams..

Do you call the guy a LB or a strong safety? I don't know. I do know teams favor speed, so no matter what you want to call the player, he has to have some speed.

To some extent - I think if you look at the successful SB teams and teams in championship games, they don't tend to be the ones leading the change for more spread offenses. I think at the NFL level the speed on D might be one factor that prevents teams doing what college teams can do. And even in the college ranks - when spread offenses meet the best defenses they usually splutter and struggle. That might be a overly simplistic snapshot - but it's early

IMHO, QB's have a certain amount of injury risk associated with the position. That risk is a balanced risk that every QB faces. When you add in the run option, that risk is enhanced. The degree of enhancement is largely dependent on the type of running QB but in every case, the degree of injury risk is greater than that of a QB who doesn't run. Most FO groups that have trended that way has done so with mixed results.

Case in point, in 2021, the top 16 (half of the league) QB's rushing yds per game (ranging from 63.9 - 18.5 yds per game) only seen 3 of those QB's play every game in 2021. That means 81.25% of the top 16 running QB's missed starts in 2021. It wouldn't be off base to point out that of those 16 QB's, only 1 has a Super Bowl title to his credit and that's a single win by Mahomes who was 13th in rushing yds per game the year he won the SB. Though that may change, the post is about trends and the trend shows running QB's don't win Super Bowls.

2022 - Stafford (less than 7.6 per game)
2021 - Brady (less than 8.0 per game)
2020 - Mahomes (13th @ 20.5 per game)
2019 - Brady (less than 5.1 per game)
2018 - Foles - (less than 7.7 per game)
2017 - Brady - (less than 6.1 per game)
2016 - P. Manning - (less than 4.7 per game)

There's a certain excitement surrounding a running QB and the weapon aspect can be considered a plus. There is an inherent risk that comes with playing that way. The other issue or the dark horse in the room is longevity. The jury is still out on the career length of the running QB. Has the 15-20 year investment into a franchise QB who is the face of the franchise for two decades a thing of the past? I don't know.

The final trend item I see is the ability to score quick like in 2-minute drills. IMHO, a person would be hard pressed to dismiss Brady or Rodgers as being the person you would want the ball in their hands with less than 2-minutes to go in a game or half. Clock management, moving the team, having to do it through the air - is that something that's being sacrificed for the excitement of the running QB?

If you have 230M guaranteed invested in a player, do you want to have the added risk of him running for 10-20 more yards per game? That's a pretty heavy investment for minimal yards for a huge risk. The injury curve being increased compared to the loss of the asset is something that will have to play out. IMHO, getting that 1st down using my highest paid asset might not be a smart use if the asset is lost for the season. I guess we'll have to see how the trends play out.

This is a good point. I can't believe how some on here are complaining about our scheme. It's an excellent scheme. I think one of the things that is overlooked is how excellent most of these guys utilize the OL. I absolutely love the zone blocking schemes that a guy like Kyle Shanahan utilizes.

I do want to add that while McVay comes from that tree, his schemes are a little bit different than some of the others. While his run blocking designs are very similar, McVay runs a lot more 11 personnel than a guy like Shanny, who runs a lot of 12, 13, and 22 personnel packages. McVay is also a bit riskier in his play calling than the others.

j/c:

I think the league is trending toward QBs who can pass and run. I'm not talking about guys like Vick or Cam, who were excellent runners and poor passers. I'm not even including Lamar, because he seems to be an outlier in every sense. I think guys like Josh Allen, Herbert, Mahomes, Watson, Burrow, R. Wilson, etc are the guys that teams covet. They are passers first, but have the ability to extend plays w/their legs and run when needed.

I have been doing some research on how some guys are so much better on 3rd down than others. How some are so much better in the 4th quarter and in tight games than others. The ability to make a big play when you are behind the chains and/or in clutch situations is a huge benefit. I think Watson is excellent in that regard.

I will add that I think the Bills should try and limit Josh Allen's running a little bit. He takes--and delivers--too many big shots. Save that stuff for the playoffs.

What your numbers are missing is that not all of your running QBs got injured while running. Lamar Jackson got rolled up on after throwing a pass. Baker got injured after throwing an INT.

link

Yet the hits they take while running have to take a toll on the body thus making them more vulnerable in the other aspects of the game. It doesn't have to be an exact running play where they are injured, the odds just increase. The unnecessary hits taken combined with the normal hits of a passer will eventually cause an injury if hit enough times. Jackson may have been injured on the roll up on his ankle while passing but was there contusions or a slight sprain that he was already playing with. How many twists. pulls and grabs had he had on the ankle prior to the roll up? The running QB increases the odds of being injured because they are taking more and different types of hits than the drop back QB. That's a gamble you play with that type of QB - not saying it's wrong but that it is a fact that cannot be discounted.

Pick him IMHO, but he's the guy I wanted in the first round (with a trade down).