What I think is left out is taking into consideration how "your team" succeeds or does not succeed on fourth and shot yardage situations. In the Browns case with such a good run blocking OL along with Hunt and Chubb one would think it would favor the Browns. I don't know that it does. First you would have to call a play that would take advantage of that situation.
Looking at a stat from a league wide average is certainly one way to approach it. But I would think that the success rate would most certainly be situational from team to team. You are correct about 4th and 1 having a higher percentage of success....
It's actually a pretty good breakdown on 4th and 1 calls.
When it comes to breaking down 4th and short situations by team, it appears some teams simply don't have the team to make it successful as the stats used in your post would indicate at least for this season. The Browns rank 9th and seem to do pretty well at it which I didn't really expect being 9th in the league.
By changing the year on the chart to last year, a total season, they did very poorly at it ranking 30th with just over a 41% rate.
In 2020 we ranked 27th with just under a 41% rate.
When looking at these charts it seems most teams have far less a percentage of success at 4th and short than the statistics listed overall for the league.
While I can't say for a fact that whether a team should go for it on 4th and short is dependent more on their actual teams success rate, these stats certainly indicate that's the case.
