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I think that Richardson might be the safest pick in the Draft, but at #4 I,m more inclined to trade down then to take a RB so high.
We all would like to think that he will make a difference, but with the way this current staff platoons our RB's he doesn't stand much of a chance of making that big of an impact ... Especially with the absence of a true go to WR. We will continue to be one dimensional on offense and defenses will continue to key on our running game, thus limiting how effective even a great RB can be.
On the other hand if we had a true go to #1 WR, it will help our running game no matter who we have lined up at RB.
A running game can set up the play action pass (and it's one of my favorite plays too), but the point becomes moot if your WR's can't beat one on one coverage.
So having a great RB without a great WR and or passing attack is a little like bringing a knife to a gun fight.
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#GMSTRONG
“Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.”
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"Alternative facts hurt us all. Think before you blindly believe."
Damanshot
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Running backs are a dime a dozen and we have spent a bucket load of dimes without a consistent, young back!
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Quote:
Quote:
RB is one of the easiest positions to scout (Thanks, Butch ) so the one's taken early tend to have very high hit rates.
Help me out here, isn't that statement true of any position?
Not at all.
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Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
RB is one of the easiest positions to scout (Thanks, Butch ) so the one's taken early tend to have very high hit rates.
Help me out here, isn't that statement true of any position?
Not at all.
So let me be sure I understand, it's not true that any player at any position has a greater chance at success the higher they are drafted? Only RB's
Last edited by Damanshot; 01/28/12 12:49 PM.
#GMSTRONG
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Damanshot
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Well, many positions tend to be very high-risk/high-reward. That's not the case at running back. There's much less projection involved.
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Quote:
Well, many positions tend to be very high-risk/high-reward. That's not the case at running back. There's much less projection involved.
Thus the view by many that a RB can be found later in the draft?
I look at perhaps three of the greatest backs of all time, Jim Brown, Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton and realize they were all drafted in the 1st round.
I also recognize that other RB's NOT drafted in the 1st have made a significant impact on the game as well.
But those three are, IMO, by far the best ever to play the game.. All 1st rounders.
I'm not sure what, if anything that proves, but it's interesting at least. it may suggest that a back drafted in the first has a better chance at success? dunno
#GMSTRONG
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Damanshot
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Well, he was drafted in the first because he was better, so that would make sense.
There are a ton of great running backs drafted in the second or later, but the success rate on them isn't all that high.
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Quote:
However ..... then you look at guys like BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeGarrette Blount, and Arian Foster who went undrafted entirely, and who have each had at least one 1000 yard season, and you have to ask yourself if it's all that hard to do.
Sorry it took so long to get back to this. After reading this I decided to do a little digging and went back through the last 10 seasons and found every 1000 yard rusher. Then I found what round they were picked in.
There were 74 different players who had 167 thousand yard seasons
31 First Rounders had 87 seasons
14 Second 32 seasons
12 Third 24 seasons
4 Fourth 8 seasons
1 Fifth 3 seasons
2 Sixth 2 seasons
3 Seventh 3 seasons
7 Undrafted 12 seasons
Excluding 2011 Draft picks:
22 of 31 First Rounder had multiple
8 of 14 Second
7 of 12 Third
3 of 4 Fourth
1 of 1 Fifth
0 of 2 Sixth
0 of 3 Seventh
4 of 7 Undrafted
30 of 45 first and second rounders had multiple, 15 of 29 third through undrafted had multiple.
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Impressive work.
So basically you are doubling your chances of getting a solid back by selecting your talent in the first round over even the 2nd round.
No doubt you can find the talent all across the board, but from a odds standpoint, you are far better off selecting guys in round one.
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Good Lord that's a lot of work!
My next question ... which I absolutely do not expect you to go back through and tally because of the huge amount of work involved, would be .......... "out of how many?". I am curious how many RB go high in each draft. It doesn't seem like very many to me. I know that Ingram (474 yards) was the only one this past year. 2010's draft had Spiller (283/561 yards), Matthews, (678/1091) and Best. (555/390) These haven't been guys to turn around a franchise. 2009's draft had Moreno, (947/779/179) Brown (281/497/645) and Wells. (792/397/1047)
We got a better season out of Hillis last year than these teams did out of any of these 1st round picks.
I do think that RB is a position that easily translates from college to the pros. It might even be the easiest position. A RB doesn't have to learn complex pass patterns in order to contribute. He just hits a hole, same as in college, and goes. (and that's not to say that some teams don't require pass routes/blocking from their backs ... but the running part seems to me to be mostly instinctual)
Now an NFL coach can screw up a college RB by trying to square hole a guy ........ forcing a "between the tackles" guy to run sweeps, and such ...... but it seems like a RB either has the instincts, or he doesn't.
Micah 6:8; He has shown you, O mortal, what is good. And what does the Lord require of you? To act justly and to love mercy, and to walk humbly with your God.
John 14:19 Jesus said: Because I live, you also will live.
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Well, I think it's common knowledge that 1st rounders at ANY position have a higher success rate than later in the draft....the point though is, that late round RBs have a higher success % than at most other positions (esp. QBs)....also, with late rounders you can go with quantitiy more...meaning, you can draft a RB in the 5th to 7th every draft and chances are every 3rd/4th will be a decent one....or 2nd to 4th the chances get even much better, otoh look at 2nd round+ QBs and their success %....good recap: http://www.draftcountdown.com/features/23qb/23qbs.phpFunny, from that list KC, OAK and CLE selected a 2n/3rd round QB 3 times, ARI even 4 selections...and none has a franchise QB the RB talent pool is simply MUCH deeper than at QB in ANY draft (most of that is simply because RB is a much easier position to play and the transition from College to NFL isn't nearly as complex and difficult as for QBs) Guys you never heard of are 3rd stringers on rosters at QB, but at RB it's survival of the fittest when roster cuts approach...guys like Kevin Smith, starter, high pick and all...are out of the league in a hurry...remember the UDFA RB who had some late season success in GB 4 or 5 years ago? I can't even remember his name anymore....had to look it up: Samkon Gado Point is: you can even grab a guy off a PS or out of FA midseason at RB and have him produce decently (Obi for us, K.Smith in DET), but it's impossible at positions like QB...that's why GMs tend to draft QBs, elite pass rushers/CBs etc in the top 5 and not RBs....VALUE
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Not the way odds of selecting a 1000 yd Rb works.
To calculate the odds of selecting a 1000 yd rusher in round 1 you will need to know how many rb's were selected in round 1. So 31/x with x being the number of rb's taken in round 1. That gives you the odds of selecting a 1000 yd rusher in round 1.
Then you do that with each round. Then you can compare how much more likely it is to get a 1000 yd rusher in round 1 vs some other round.
With the data provided what you can say half of the 1000 yd rushers were selecting in round 1 or 2.
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Interesting that there are more undrafted FA rb's with 1000 yd seasons than rbs drafted in rounds 5/6/7 put together. Could it be that the undrafted FA rb's get to pick the team they sign with? Is there something more to it?
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Id love to see a 50/50 split with Richardson and Hillis....talk about wearing down a D!
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Quote:
Not the way odds of selecting a 1000 yd Rb works.
To calculate the odds of selecting a 1000 yd rusher in round 1 you will need to know how many rb's were selected in round 1. So 31/x with x being the number of rb's taken in round 1. That gives you the odds of selecting a 1000 yd rusher in round 1.
Then you do that with each round. Then you can compare how much more likely it is to get a 1000 yd rusher in round 1 vs some other round.
With the data provided what you can say half of the 1000 yd rushers were selecting in round 1 or 2.
I understand it isn't the odds of selecting one. It just the odds are you have twice as good a chance of selecting one.
If everybody had like minds, we would never learn. GM Strong
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Quote:
Id love to see a 50/50 split with Richardson and Hillis....talk about wearing down a D!
Don't know how much it would wear down a D when teams stuff 8 guys in the box and we go 3-and-out half the time because we still don't have a passing game. 
We're... we're good?
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Whether or not he warrants a #4 pick I just don't see a team that is desperately trying to justify the move to WCO going RB with that pick with this much to chose from in the top 5 of this draft. We need playmakers and Richardson certainly qualifies but the little platoon we have is not where the bleeding is the worst on this team. They need a lot of immediate impact with that #4 and adding another RB is just not going to provide that. We need the parts that make the much talked about and maligned passing game more effective, you can fill in those blanks. Plus, as mentioned there's a lot of decent FA running back talent waiting for the phone to ring. I just don't see H& H, with all the words they'vecommitted in writing to the passing game handing in a RB's card with the #4 pick at the draft.
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A 50/50 split with Richardson and Hillis?
Exactly, Because neither would help when the Browns face 3rd and 15, they wouldn't sustain drives anymore than now and the result is no more wins.
I used to like the thought of a Richardson pick at 4, now I think its the wrong move.
I'd rather see them try and get L. James at 37 because you wouldn't necessarilly have to get rid of any of the current rb's . I'm not really counting Brandon Jackson because he hasn't played yet.
If you pick Richardson at 4, you are guaranteeing he has to be one of your top 2 guys, and that thing, nobody knows yet.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Quote:
Because neither would help when the Browns face 3rd and 15
Really? They wouldn't help? I have to ask why.
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
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Because you are most likely in a passing situation.
That brings me to a point I didn't realize, sometimes a third to a half of the game you have to forget about the running back because your team is down alot of points. It would make a Trent Richardson pick even worse.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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Quote:
A 50/50 split with Richardson and Hillis?
Exactly, Because neither would help when the Browns face 3rd and 15, they wouldn't sustain drives anymore than now and the result is no more wins.
I used to like the thought of a Richardson pick at 4, now I think its the wrong move.
I'd rather see them try and get L. James at 37 because you wouldn't necessarilly have to get rid of any of the current rb's . I'm not really counting Brandon Jackson because he hasn't played yet.
If you pick Richardson at 4, you are guaranteeing he has to be one of your top 2 guys, and that thing, nobody knows yet.
so you think with both of those guys healthy and running the ball we would be in alot of 3rd and 15's?
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Quote:
Because you are most likely in a passing situation.
That brings me to a point I didn't realize, sometimes a third to a half of the game you have to forget about the running back because your team is down alot of points. It would make a Trent Richardson pick even worse.
Hopefully the Browns aren't building a team from the standpoint of, "How will we play when we are down a lot of points." 
yebat' Putin
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 I think they could have take your pick, any 2 Rb's on the planet, of the last 20 seasons, and they'd still be in alot of 3rd and 15 situations. OK, ok, ok, Bo Jackson, and Herschel Walker were more than 20 seasons ago.
Can Deshaun Watson play better for the Browns, than Baker Mayfield would have? ... Now the Games count.
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you do realize that both guys are good at catching passes right? and running over DBs or making slower guys miss? so, a pass to one of these guys is viable, no?
#gmstrong
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Quote:
you do realize that both guys are good at catching passes right? and running over DBs or making slower guys miss? so, a pass to one of these guys is viable, no?
Exactly why I asked for clarification on that one.
There may be people who have more talent than you, but there's no excuse for anyone to work harder than you do.
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Getting a 1000 yard rusher is completely irrelevant. The goal is to WIN GAMES. You want a stud RB who puts up 1000 yards? Yeah you should probably look at the 1st round. You want an offense that scores points, wins games and goes deep in the playoffs? Don't even think about it.
Here's the two-deep RB roster of the final 8 teams in this seasons playoffs:
New England Patriots : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - UDFA / Stevan Ridley - 3rd Rd
New York Giants : Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th Rd / Brandon Jacobs - 4th Rd
San Francisco 49ers : Frank Gore - 3rd Rd / Kendall Hunter - 4th Rd
Baltimore Ravens : Ray Rice - 2nd Rd / Ricky Williams - 1st Rd
Green Bay Packers : James Starks - 6th Rd / Ryan Grant - UDFA
New Orleans Saints : Darren Sproles - 4th Rd / Pierre Thomas - UDFA
Denver Broncos : Willis McGahee - 1st Rd / Lance Ball - UDFA
Houston Texans : Arian Foster - UDFA / Ben Tate - 2nd Rd
There are only 2 1st round picks out of 16 spots on that list and only ONE starter. Yet there are FIVE UDFA guys!!! plus a 7th rounder and a 6th rounder. So 7 out of 16 were 6th round or LOWER. I'm not making this stuff up.
Meanwhile, guys like AP, MJD, Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson etc. are all 1st round picks who put up monster #s and 1000 yard seasons every year....and their teams all SUCK.
Trent Richardson is an amazing RB. Best I've seen since AP...and I want NOTHING to do with him in the 1st round. There's just no value there. I'd much rather pick up a speedy RB in the 3rd/4th or later rounds to compliment Hillis and use our top picks to actually FIX the offense (specifically QB and WR).
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It's a great point, and one I think is stronger when you consider both those 1st round guys were FA acquisitions and are not with the team that drafted them.
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except you left off Tim tebow
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Quote:
Getting a 1000 yard rusher is completely irrelevant. The goal is to WIN GAMES. You want a stud RB who puts up 1000 yards? Yeah you should probably look at the 1st round. You want an offense that scores points, wins games and goes deep in the playoffs? Don't even think about it.
Here's the two-deep RB roster of the final 8 teams in this seasons playoffs:
New England Patriots : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - UDFA / Stevan Ridley - 3rd Rd
New York Giants : Ahmad Bradshaw - 7th Rd / Brandon Jacobs - 4th Rd
San Francisco 49ers : Frank Gore - 3rd Rd / Kendall Hunter - 4th Rd
Baltimore Ravens : Ray Rice - 2nd Rd / Ricky Williams - 1st Rd
Green Bay Packers : James Starks - 6th Rd / Ryan Grant - UDFA
New Orleans Saints : Darren Sproles - 4th Rd / Pierre Thomas - UDFA
Denver Broncos : Willis McGahee - 1st Rd / Lance Ball - UDFA
Houston Texans : Arian Foster - UDFA / Ben Tate - 2nd Rd
There are only 2 1st round picks out of 16 spots on that list and only ONE starter. Yet there are FIVE UDFA guys!!! plus a 7th rounder and a 6th rounder. So 7 out of 16 were 6th round or LOWER. I'm not making this stuff up.
Meanwhile, guys like AP, MJD, Marshawn Lynch, Steven Jackson etc. are all 1st round picks who put up monster #s and 1000 yard seasons every year....and their teams all SUCK.
Trent Richardson is an amazing RB. Best I've seen since AP...and I want NOTHING to do with him in the 1st round. There's just no value there. I'd much rather pick up a speedy RB in the 3rd/4th or later rounds to compliment Hillis and use our top picks to actually FIX the offense (specifically QB and WR).
Nice work I can really see your point. Also dont we have some kid Adams that sat on the practice squad? Im sold now on no RB in the 1st round. Give me QB/WR/CB in this years draft if we use the #4 pick.
If you need 3 years to be a winner you got here 2 years to early. Get it done Browns.
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yea.. give me Pierce or Pead and I'm happy.  the more I think about it though.. I'd rather have Pierce over Pead.. b/c we do have Armond Smith on the PS.. I think he could pull a Willie Parker for us in a sense.
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Quote:
My next question ... which I absolutely do not expect you to go back through and tally because of the huge amount of work involved, would be .......... "out of how many?".
Lol, actually it wasn't that much work because I've saved all of my previous work and the website I use allows you to sort draft results by just about every option imaginable.
From 2001 to 2011:
First Round 31 draftees, 21 draftees had 54 1000 seasons
Second 28 draftees, 10 had 26
Third 25 draftees, 8 had 15
Fourth 39 draftees, 3 had 7
Fifth 20 draftees, 1 had 3
Sixth 34 draftees, 1 had 1
Seventh 45 draftees, 3 had 3
First 67.7%
Second 35.7%
Third 32%
Fourth 7.7%
Fifth 5%
Sixth 3%
Seventh 6.7%
Some of these numbers may be off by one or two, because of players drafted as a FB out of College, but played RB in the NFL. I caught Peyton Hillis and Justin Fargas, but I'm not 100% sure that they are the only two.
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When you're just looking at one year it will be distorted.
2010
Pittsburgh Steelers : Rashard Mendenhall - 1st / Isaac Redman - UDFA
Baltimore Ravens : Ray Rice - 2nd / Willis McGahee - 1st
New York Jets : LaDanian Tomlinson - 1st / Shonn Greene - 3rd
New England Patriots : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 1st / Danny Woodhead - UDFA
Green Bay Packers : James Starks - 6th / Brandon Jackson - 2nd
Chicago Bears : Matt Forte 2nd / Chester Taylor 6th
Atlanta Falcons : Michael Turner - 5th / Jason Snelling - 7th
Seattle Seahawks : Marshawn Lynch 1st / Justin Forsett 7th
2009
Indianapolis Colts : Joseph Addai 1st / Donald Brown 1st
Baltimore Ravens : Ray Rice - 2nd / Willis McGahee - 1st
New York Jets : Thomas Jones 1st / Shonn Greene 3rd
San Diego Chargers : LaDanian Tomlinson 1st / Darren Sproles 4th
New Orleans aints : Mike Bell UDFA / Pierre Thomas UDFA
Arizona Cardinals : Chris Wells 1st / Tim Hightower 5th
Minnesota Vikings : Adrian Peterson 1st / Chester Taylor 6th
Dallas Cowboys : Marion Barber 4th / Felix Jones 1st
2008
Arizona Cardinals : Edgerrin James 1st / Tim Hightower 5th
Carolina Panthers : DeAngelo Williams 1st / Jonathan Stewart 1st
Phildelphia Eagles : Brian Westbrook 3rd / Correl Buckhalter 4th
New York Giants : Brandon Jacobs 4th / Derrick Ward 7th
Baltimore Ravens : Willis McGahee 1st / Le'Ron McClain 4th
Tennessee Titans : Chris Johnson 1st / LenDale White 2nd
Pittsburgh Steelers : Willie Parker UDFA / Mwelde Moore 4th
San Diego Chargers : LaDanian Tomlinson 1st / Darren Sproles 4th
19 first rounders in 48 spots, including 13 of the 24 starters. 11 of 48 were 6th round or lower, with 3 starters.
More than half of the final 8 teams from 2008 to 2010 had a 1st round RB as their starter.
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Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis was a 1st round pick?
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Quote:
Sorry it took so long to get back to this. After reading this I decided to do a little digging and went back through the last 10 seasons and found every 1000 yard rusher. Then I found what round they were picked in.
There were 74 different players who had 167 thousand yard seasons
31 First Rounders had 87 seasons
14 Second 32 seasons
12 Third 24 seasons
4 Fourth 8 seasons
1 Fifth 3 seasons
2 Sixth 2 seasons
3 Seventh 3 seasons
7 Undrafted 12 seasons
Excluding 2011 Draft picks:
22 of 31 First Rounder had multiple
8 of 14 Second
7 of 12 Third
3 of 4 Fourth
1 of 1 Fifth
0 of 2 Sixth
0 of 3 Seventh
4 of 7 Undrafted
30 of 45 first and second rounders had multiple, 15 of 29 third through undrafted had multiple.
Nice work, but a RB who makes the 1000 yard mark is not a good indicator of a good team.
Take Berry Sanders for an example.
How many years did his team make the playoffs? Forget about 1000 yards, he usually lead the League in rushing.
If the Lions had to pick between having Berry Sanders or having Megatron and they can only have one or the other ... I think that I would go with the latter [Calvin Johnston].
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 13,358 |
2010: As already mentioned, BJGE was an UDFA. The only 1st rounder of the 16 that is with the team that drafted them on that list is Mendenhall.
2009: The team (IND) with 2 first round picks at RB that they themselves made were in the playoffs almost despite those players. That year they ranked last in the NFL with 1294 total (80.9 ypg) rushing yards.
The 31st-ranked team had 10% more rushing yards than IND on the season. That team (SD) also happens to be one of the teams with a first round RB they drafted.
McGahee and Jones were signed as FA and not drafted by those teams.
Chris Wells, the next RB on that list drafted in the first by that team, ran for 793 yards as the AZ running attack ranked 28th in the league in 2009.
While Felix Jones was drafted in the first by the Cowboys, he ran for less than 700 yards that season, as they relied much more heavily on the 4th-round pick Barber.
IMO, Peterson is really the only good example from 2009 as a first-round back to make a major difference for the team that drafted him.
So for the last 3 years, a 1st round RB has made a significant positive impact for 2 of 24 teams in the divisional round of the playoffs. Surprising to me.
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Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,882
Legend
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Legend
Joined: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,882 |
Berry Sanders? Calvin Johnston? I could understand not getting Darrin Chiaverini or Tshimanga Biakabutuka spelled right.....but Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson? Sorry....just giving you the business. 
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 Likes: 87
Hall of Famer
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Hall of Famer
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 8,660 Likes: 87 |
Quote:
Berry Sanders?
Calvin Johnston?
I could understand not getting Darrin Chiaverini or Tshimanga Biakabutuka spelled right.....but Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson? Sorry....just giving you the business.
Thanks,
I'll just pm all my post to you for editing first from now on
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